A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat→Stable
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings→Stable
- Price Above Target In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.91 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America and International—serving restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. McDonald's Corporation represented approximately... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.91 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Plans To Close Production Facility In Broekhuizenvorst To Align Global Supply Chain Footprint With — benzinga Jun 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Stephens & Co. Initiates Coverage On Lamb Weston Hldgs with Equal-Weight Rating, Announces Price Target of $46 — benzinga May 27, 2026
- NEWS Starboard Value Increases Stake In Tripadvisor Inc By 12% To 10,774,996 Shares; CarMax Inc With 6,201,362 Shares; Fluor — benzinga May 15, 2026
- NEWS Trump's Trading Disclosure Shows Activity In Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Oracle And Other Major Stocks — benzinga May 14, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.91 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.03. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $45.57 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $43.03. Stop-loss: $43.03.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.6/10.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America...
Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America and International—serving restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. McDonald's Corporation represented approximately 15% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales; the top 10 customers totaled approximately 50%. The company operates 26 production facilities in eight countries.