A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat→Stable
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings↑Improving
- Price Above Target In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America and International—serving restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. McDonald's Corporation represented approximately... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hsbc Holdings PLC Boosts Stock Holdings in Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Fifth Third Bancorp Acquires 45,790 Shares of Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Is Lamb Weston Positioned for a Beat in Its Q4 Earnings Release? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: PepsiCo (PEP) and Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T10:02:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.11. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.28 (-15.9% upside). Prior stop was $46.11. Stop-loss: $46.11.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America...
Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America and International—serving restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. McDonald's Corporation represented approximately 15% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales; the top 10 customers totaled approximately 50%. The company operates 26 production facilities in eight countries.