A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat→Stable
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings↓Deteriorating
- Price Above Target In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston is the largest producer of value-added frozen potato products in North America and a leading international supplier, selling primarily french fries through its North America and International segments across more than 100 countries. The company operates 26 production... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hsbc Holdings PLC Boosts Stock Holdings in Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Fifth Third Bancorp Acquires 45,790 Shares of Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Is Lamb Weston Positioned for a Beat in Its Q4 Earnings Release? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: PepsiCo (PEP) and Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T11:27:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerMcDonald's Corporation15%10-K Item 1: 'our largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, of our consolidated net sales'
- MEDIUMCustomerten largest customers50%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 2.05MEDIUMBoard committed on June 1, 2026 to close the Broekhuizenvorst, Netherlands manufacturing facility to align global manufacturing capacity with customer needs. Expects $80-110 million in pre-tax charges, mostly in FY2027, with at least 20% resulting in future cash expenditures.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-26Item 1.01LOWChinese subsidiary Ulanqab Lamb Weston entered a RMB 700 million (~$102.9 million) term loan facility with HSBC Bank (China) on May 19, 2026, refinancing debt under a 2022 facility agreement. Matures May 22, 2031; guaranteed by the parent company.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $53.07 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $50.09. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.17 (-9.4% upside). Prior stop was $50.09. Stop-loss: $50.09.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak growth.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $55.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston is the largest producer of value-added frozen potato products in North America and a leading international...
Lamb Weston is the largest producer of value-added frozen potato products in North America and a leading international supplier, selling primarily french fries through its North America and International segments across more than 100 countries. The company operates 26 production facilities and generated approximately 50% of fiscal 2025 net sales from its ten largest customers, with McDonald's Corporation, its largest customer, accounting for approximately 15%.