Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.74 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products (primarily French fries) in North America with an International segment serving 100+ countries. McDonald Corporation accounted for ~15% of fiscal 2025 net sales; top 10 customers ~50% of net sales.... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.74 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomersignificant customers10-K Item 1A: 'Some of these customers independently represent a meaningful portion of our sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-04Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Bernadette M. Madarieta to be succeeded by James D. Gray effective April 2, 2026. Jan Eli B. Craps also appointed Executive Chair effective February 6, 2026. Named CFO successor; clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUMAmendment disclosing CFO Madarieta transition and separation agreement: she will serve as CFO through April 1, 2026 and remain as advisor through April 30, 2026, subject to non-compete and non-solicitation. Successor James Gray confirmed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.74 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $40.90. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $45.68 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $40.90. Stop-loss: $40.90.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $46.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products (primarily French fries) in North America...
Lamb Weston is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products (primarily French fries) in North America with an International segment serving 100+ countries. McDonald Corporation accounted for ~15% of fiscal 2025 net sales; top 10 customers ~50% of net sales. Revenue from quick service restaurants, foodservice distributors, retailers, and mass merchants.