A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat→Stable
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings→Stable
- Price Above Target In Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.
Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America and holds a strong position internationally, selling french fries and other frozen potato products in over 100 countries through North America and International segments. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Hsbc Holdings PLC Boosts Stock Holdings in Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Fifth Third Bancorp Acquires 45,790 Shares of Lamb Weston $LW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Is Lamb Weston Positioned for a Beat in Its Q4 Earnings Release? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Goods Companies: PepsiCo (PEP) and Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T14:03:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerMcDonald's Corporation15%10-K Item 1: 'our largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, of our consolidated net sales'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers50%10-K Item 1: 'our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales'
- MEDIUMGeographicsales outside the United States35%10-K Item 1A: 'net sales outside the U.S., primarily in Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Mexico, and Taiwan, accounted for approximately 35%, 34%, and 23% of our net sales, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 2.05MEDIUMLamb Weston's board committed to closing its Broekhuizenvorst, Netherlands manufacturing facility, expecting $80-110 million in pre-tax charges mostly recognized in fiscal 2027, to align its global manufacturing footprint with customer needs.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-26Item 1.01LOWChinese subsidiary Ulanqab Lamb Weston Food Co. entered a new RMB 700 million (~$103 million) term loan facility with HSBC China, guaranteed by the parent, to refinance existing debt; matures May 2031. Routine financing.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $49.09 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.11. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.28 (-15.9% upside). Prior stop was $46.11. Stop-loss: $46.11.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Weak growth.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $48.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America and holds a...
Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America and holds a strong position internationally, selling french fries and other frozen potato products in over 100 countries through North America and International segments. The company's largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales, and its ten largest customers combined for approximately 50%. Lamb Weston operates 26 production facilities, employs approximately 10,100 people, and generated approximately 35% of fiscal 2025 net sa