A packaged-food business with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and exceptional cash generation has risen slightly above its near-term resistance target within a confirmed technical downtrend, carries a dividend payout of 335% of earnings, and shows very weak revenue growth of roughly 3% — the cash conversion is real but the current price already reflects the positives.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Fcf Conversion Without Moat↓Deteriorating
- Dividend Payout Far Above Earnings↓Deteriorating
- Price Above Target In Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Lamb Weston, based in Eagle, Idaho, produces and sells value-added frozen potato products, mostly French fries, to restaurants, foodservice distributors and retailers in over 100 countries through North America and International segments. It operates 26 production facilities and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
About Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
McDonald's Corporation accounted for approximately 15% of Lamb Weston's consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, up from 13% in fiscal 2023, and the ten largest customers together made up about 50%. The company, headquartered in Eagle, Idaho, ranks as the number one supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America, operates 26 production facilities, and employed roughly 10,100 people as of July 17, 2025.
Lamb Weston reports two segments, North America and International, selling frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients and appetizers, with French fries making up most of the portfolio. Customers include quick service and full-service restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, non-commercial channels and retailers, reached through internal sales staff and independent brokers, agents and distributors. Net sales outside the United States were 35% of the total in fiscal 2025, up from 23% in fiscal 2023, and export sales from the U.S. were 6%. Raw potatoes come under strategic long-term grower relationships and short-term annual contracts, mostly from Washington, Idaho and Oregon in the U.S., and the 10-K notes that no active derivatives market for potatoes exists in the U.S. The company also holds a 50% stake in the Lamb Weston RDO joint venture and 75% of a joint venture in Austria, and sources a portion of products from co-packers. McCain Foods, J.R. Simplot, The Kraft Heinz Company, Aviko and Cavendish Farms count among its named competitors.
Show full overview
Footprint and cost programs frame the main exposure. In October 2024 the company began a restructuring plan, and in July 2025 it announced a new Cost Savings Program. In June 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a plan to close its Broekhuizenvorst, Netherlands, manufacturing facility, with expected pre-tax charges of $80 million to $110 million, mostly in fiscal 2027. Labor adds pressure: about 30% of employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements, and 65% of the hourly employees under those contracts are in negotiations or see agreements expire within twelve months.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) Stock Down 3.6% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 83/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS JPMorgan Chase & Co. Has Lowered Expectations for Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) Stock Price - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS JPMorgan Chase & Co. Has Lowered Expectations for Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) Stock Price - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com negative
Generated 2026-10-15T11:52:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerMcDonald's Corporation15%10-K Item 1: 'our largest customer, McDonald’s Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, of our consolidated net sales'
- MEDIUMCustomerten largest customers50%10-K Item 1: 'In fiscal 2025, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales.'
- MEDIUMGeographicnet sales outside the U.S.35%10-K Item 1A: 'net sales outside the U.S., primarily in Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Mexico, and Taiwan, accounted for approximately 35%, 34%, and 23% of our net sales'
- MEDIUMCommoditypotatoes grown in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon10-K Item 1: 'In the U.S., most of the potato crop used in our products is grown in Washington, Idaho, and Oregon.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 2.05MEDIUMBoard committed on June 1, 2026 to close the Broekhuizenvorst, Netherlands manufacturing facility after Works Council consultation; expects pre-tax charges of about $80-110 million, mostly in fiscal 2027, at least 20% in cash.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-26Item 1.01LOWLW Ulanqab, a Chinese subsidiary, entered a RMB 700 million (about $102.9 million) term loan facility with HSBC China as agent, maturing May 22, 2031, refinancing its 2022 facility, guaranteed by Lamb Weston Holdings.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $60.97 (+15.0%), stop $49.31 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $60.97 (-8.1% upside). Target $60.97 (+15.0%), stop $49.31 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $49.31.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.4 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston, based in Eagle, Idaho, produces and sells value-added frozen potato products, mostly French fries, to...
Lamb Weston, based in Eagle, Idaho, produces and sells value-added frozen potato products, mostly French fries, to restaurants, foodservice distributors and retailers in over 100 countries through North America and International segments. It operates 26 production facilities and calls itself the number one supplier in North America. McDonald's accounted for about 15% of fiscal 2025 net sales and the ten largest customers about 50%.