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Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. At $42.19, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: McDonald's Corporation (15.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (50.0%).

Lamb Weston is the #1 supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America and a leading international supplier, with operations in 32 countries across two segments: North America and International. Revenue is generated from frozen potato products (primarily French... Read more

$42.19+4.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#18 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield9.91%
IncomeYield3.48%(5y avg 1.75%)Payout69.95%
Stop $39.37Target $43.95(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$46.36+9.9%11 analysts
$43.95our TP
$42.19price
$46.36mean
$65

Sell if holding. At $42.19, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: McDonald's Corporation (15.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (50.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: McDonald's Corporation (15.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (50.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.5
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.46
Dividend3.48%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.58bearish
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMcDonald's Corporation15%
    10-K Item 1: 'our largest customer, McDonald's Corporation, accounted for approximately 15%, 14%, and 13%, respectively, of our consolidated net sales'
  • HIGHCustomertop ten customers50%
    10-K Item 1: 'our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 50% of our net sales'
  • MEDIUMGeographicnet sales outside the U.S.35%
    10-K Item 1A: 'net sales outside the U.S., primarily in Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Mexico, and Taiwan, accounted for approximately 35%, 34%, and 23% of our net sales, respectively'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Bernadette M. Madarieta departing April 1, 2026. James D. Gray named as successor CFO effective April 2, 2026. Transition agreement includes advisory role through April 30, 2026 and severance provisions.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.4
Growth Rank
5.4
Quality Rank
5.7
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.28%=MODERATEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.5>=5.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.30Resistance $44.85

Price Targets

$39
$44
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $42.19, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: McDonald's Corporation (15.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (50.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $39.37. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the LW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.95 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $39.37. Stop-loss: $39.37.

What are the risks of investing in LW?

Concentration risk — Customer: McDonald's Corporation (15.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (50.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is LW overvalued or undervalued?

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LW?

20 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston is the #1 supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America and a leading international...

Lamb Weston is the #1 supplier of value-added frozen potato products in North America and a leading international supplier, with operations in 32 countries across two segments: North America and International. Revenue is generated from frozen potato products (primarily French fries) sold to quick service restaurants, foodservice distributors, and retailers; McDonald's Corporation accounted for approximately 15% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025.

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