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LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.Sell4.8·$45.09-0.73%
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Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5.

Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America and International—serving restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. McDonald's Corporation represented approximately... Read more

$45.090.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#22 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield9.52%
IncomeYield3.35%(5y avg 1.79%)Payout69.95%
Stop $42.89Target $45.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$46.50+3.1%12 analysts
$45.07our TP
$45.09price
$46.50mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.3
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn4.6%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta0.46
Dividend3.35%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$60+33.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.2

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.2
Support Resistance
1.5
52w Position
3.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.8
Growth Rank
5.0
Quality Rank
5.7
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.16Resistance $45.99

Price Targets

$43
$45
A.Upside-0.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.09 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $42.89. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the LW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.07 (0.0% upside). Prior stop was $42.89. Stop-loss: $42.89.

What are the risks of investing in LW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.2): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is LW overvalued or undervalued?

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LW?

21 analysts cover LW with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. do?Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America...

Lamb Weston Holdings is the number one frozen potato product supplier in North America, with two segments—North America and International—serving restaurant chains, foodservice distributors, and retailers in over 100 countries. McDonald's Corporation represented approximately 15% of fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales; the top 10 customers totaled approximately 50%. The company operates 26 production facilities in eight countries.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · MKC (McCormick & Company, Incorporat)
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