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LRCXLam Research CorporationBuy Wait6.5·$297.56+3.20%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Lam Research is an exceptional-quality semiconductor equipment franchise — 67% return on equity, 31% net margins, a wide economic moat, and a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak — but the current price has reached and slightly exceeded the near-term resistance target, leaving no meaningful upside and making new entries unattractive despite the strength of the underlying business.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth TrajectoryStable
  • Geographic Concentration RiskStable
  • Wide Moat High Return QualityStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Wait for pullback to $284.73. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $297.56. Engine's entry $284.73 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single supplier for certain components and sub-assemblies.

Lam Research Corporation is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry, selling deposition, etch, and clean systems to leading memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers. Headquartered in Fremont, California, the company... Read more

$297.56+16.6% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#4 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.84%
IncomeYield0.46%(5y avg 0.96%)Payout18.06%sustainable
Entry $284.73(support + ATR (held))Stop $257.16Target $341.20(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$370.87+24.6%31 analysts
$341.20our TP
$297.56price
$370.87mean
$500

Wait for pullback to $284.73. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $297.56. Engine's entry $284.73 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single supplier for certain components and sub-assemblies. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.35, quality 8.4/10, growth 9.5/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Lam Research Corporation

About Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research draws approximately 93% of its revenue from customers outside the United States, reflecting a semiconductor equipment customer base concentrated among memory, foundry, and logic manufacturers in Asia. The company's most significant customers in fiscal 2025 included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung Electronics, and it maintains facilities across Asia, Europe, and the United States to support its installed base of wafer-fabrication systems.

Lam Research generates revenue primarily through direct sales of deposition, etch, and clean systems — including the ALTUS, SABRE, Vector, Flex, and Kiyo product families — to semiconductor manufacturers, supplemented by its Customer Support Business Group, which sells spares, system upgrades, and refurbished non-leading-edge tools under the Reliant brand. Manufacturing consists mainly of final assembly and testing of systems built from components sourced from third-party suppliers, and the company outsources certain production, warehousing, and logistics functions under written contracts rather than owning that infrastructure outright. Some components and sub-assemblies used in its systems are available from only a single supplier, a dependency the company manages partly by qualifying alternate sources and carrying extra inventory. Sales concentrate among a limited number of large semiconductor customers, whose purchasing decisions can materially swing Lam's shipments, revenue, and profitability from quarter to quarter.

Show full overview

Lam Research's dependence on a limited number of large customers compounds a structural feature of semiconductor capital equipment: once a manufacturer commits to a competitor's tool for a given production line, it typically continues buying that competitor's equipment for that application, making it harder for Lam to displace an incumbent supplier. The 10-K also flags single-supplier sourcing for certain components without naming the supplier, alongside heavy reliance on non-U.S. revenue that ties results to the trade relationship between the U.S. and China. Together these disclosures point to a business whose growth depends less on switching entrenched customers and more on capturing share of new fabrication capacity as it comes online.

See also: Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

From Lam Research Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single supplier for certain components and sub-assemblies
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)50.0
P/E (Fwd)25.3
Mkt Cap$366.2B
EV/EBITDA42.2
Profit Mgn31.3%
ROE65.1%
Rev Growth30.0%
Beta1.86
Dividend0.46%
Rating analysts41

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$405+36.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. sales93%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Non-U.S. sales...accounted for approximately 93%, 93%, and 91% of total revenue in fiscal years 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerSamsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
    10-K Item 1: 'Our most significant customers during the fiscal years ending June 29, 2025, June 30, 2024, and June 25, 2023 included Samsung Electronics Company, Ltd. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle supplier for certain components and sub-assemblies
    10-K Item 1: 'Certain components and sub-assemblies that we include in our products may only be obtained from a single supplier.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.5
Forward Pe
4.9
Peg Ratio
5.6
Analyst Target
7.5
Forward P/E: 25.3xPEG: 1.35
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $278.04Resistance $345.28

Price Targets

$257
$285
$341
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.6%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LRCX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $284.73. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $297.56. Engine's entry $284.73 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single supplier for certain components and sub-assemblies. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.35, quality 8.4/10, growth 9.5/10). Target $341.20 (+14.7%), stop $257.16 (−15.7%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LRCX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $341.20 (+16.6% upside). Target $341.20 (+14.7%), stop $257.16 (−15.7%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $257.16.

What are the risks of investing in LRCX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single supplier for certain components and sub-assemblies; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is LRCX overvalued or undervalued?

Lam Research Corporation trades at a P/E of 50.0 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LRCX?

41 analysts cover LRCX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $371.

What does Lam Research Corporation do?Lam Research Corporation is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor...

Lam Research Corporation is a global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry, selling deposition, etch, and clean systems to leading memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers. Headquartered in Fremont, California, the company derives the substantial majority of its revenue from outside the United States, with non-U.S. sales at approximately 93% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, and its most significant customers include Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

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