Skip to main content

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $407.63 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (89.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Applied Materials is the leading provider of materials engineering solutions for semiconductor manufacturing, operating two segments: Semiconductor Systems (wafer fabrication equipment) and Applied Global Services (spares, services, software). The company derives ~89% of net... Read more

$407.63+14.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#4 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.96%
IncomeYield0.49%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout17.31%sustainable
Stop $378.43Target $465.44(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$505.91+24.1%35 analysts
$465.44our TP
$407.63price
$505.91mean
$355
$575

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $407.63 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (89.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Applied Materials, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (89.0%)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.9
P/E (Fwd)26.0
Mkt Cap$328.2B
EV/EBITDA35.2
Profit Mgn29.3%
ROE39.7%
Rev Growth11.4%
Beta1.65
Dividend0.49%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo largest customers
    10-K Item 1: 'During fiscal 2025, two customers accounted for approximately 19% and 15%, respectively, of our net revenue.'
  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. customers89%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 89% of our net revenue was to customers in regions outside the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.5
Pe
3.1
Peg Ratio
4.4
Forward Pe
4.8
Analyst Target
6.0
Forward P/E: 26.0xPEG: 2.07
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $377.07Resistance $448.45

Price Targets

$378
$465
A.Upside+14.2%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $407.63 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (89.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $378.43. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $465.44 (+14.4% upside). Prior stop was $378.43. Stop-loss: $378.43.

What are the risks of investing in AMAT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. customers (89.0%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation.

Is AMAT overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Materials, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.9 (forward 26.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMAT?

43 analysts cover AMAT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $506.

What does Applied Materials, Inc. do?Applied Materials is the leading provider of materials engineering solutions for semiconductor manufacturing, operating...

Applied Materials is the leading provider of materials engineering solutions for semiconductor manufacturing, operating two segments: Semiconductor Systems (wafer fabrication equipment) and Applied Global Services (spares, services, software). The company derives ~89% of net revenue from outside the U.S., with two customers accounting for ~19% and ~15% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

Related stocks: TER (Teradyne, Inc.) · LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) · ASML (ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re) · KLAC (KLA Corporation)