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Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. At $390.84, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea.

Applied Materials designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and services globally across two segments: Semiconductor Systems (largest) and Applied Global Services. In fiscal 2025, approximately 89% of net revenue came from customers... Read more

$390.84+5.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Stop $364.93Target $412.09(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$424.38+8.6%32 analysts
$412.09our TP
$390.84price
$424.38mean
$280
$500

Sell if holding. At $390.84, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers
Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.2
P/E (Fwd)27.2
Mkt Cap$303.6B
EV/EBITDA34.0
Profit Mgn27.8%
ROE38.9%
Rev Growth-2.1%
Beta1.64
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$185-52.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerlimited number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'A relatively limited number of customers account for a substantial portion of our business.'
  • HIGHGeographicChina, Taiwan and Korea
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our customer base is geographically concentrated, particularly in China, Taiwan and Korea'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
2.9
Pe
3.1
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.6
Peg Ratio
4.7
Forward P/E: 27.2xPEG: 1.82
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVENEWS LEGALEARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $337.25Resistance $420.50

Price Targets

$365
$412
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-14 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMAT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $390.84, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $364.93. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMAT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $412.09 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $364.93. Stop-loss: $364.93.

What are the risks of investing in AMAT?

Concentration risk — Customer: limited number of customers; Concentration risk — Geographic: China, Taiwan and Korea; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AMAT overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Materials, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 27.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMAT?

43 analysts cover AMAT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $424.

What does Applied Materials, Inc. do?Applied Materials designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and services...

Applied Materials designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and services globally across two segments: Semiconductor Systems (largest) and Applied Global Services. In fiscal 2025, approximately 89% of net revenue came from customers outside the United States, with significant concentration in China, Taiwan, and Korea.

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