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ASMLASML Holding N.V. - New York ReSell5.2·$1814.00+2.53%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The company operates a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 52% return on equity, and 30% net margins, but the stock is already trading above its near-term price target with an unfavorable risk/reward, making new or incremental positions unattractive at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Premium Quality Wide MoatStable
  • Expensive Valuation Above TargetStable
  • Strong Technical Breakout MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re (ASML) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1814.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation.

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet... Read more

$1814.00+7.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#11 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.21%
IncomeYield0.50%(5y avg 0.83%)Payout25.82%sustainable
Stop $1697.32Target $1959.96(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$1782.83-1.7%14 analysts
$1959.96our TP
$1814.00price
$1782.83mean
$885
$2337

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1814.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re

Generated 2026-07-07T10:21:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 15, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)60.2
P/E (Fwd)35.8
Mkt Cap$681.9B
EV/EBITDA2981.4
Profit Mgn29.7%
ROE52.2%
Rev Growth13.2%
Beta1.39
Dividend0.50%
Rating analysts42

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Pe
2.0
Forward Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.9
Forward P/E: 35.8xPEG: 2.65Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1638.38Resistance $1999.96

Price Targets

$1697
$1960
A.Upside+8.0%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.0% upside)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASML stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1814.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $1697.32. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASML stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1959.96 (+7.4% upside). Prior stop was $1697.32. Stop-loss: $1697.32.

What are the risks of investing in ASML?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is ASML overvalued or undervalued?

ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re trades at a P/E of 60.2 (forward 35.8). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASML?

42 analysts cover ASML with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $1783.

What does ASML Holding N.V. - New York Re do?ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and...

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

Related stocks: LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) · AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc.) · KLAC (KLA Corporation) · TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)
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