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Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Wait for pullback to $252.04. At $281.85 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $252.04 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Samsung Electronics Company and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

Lam Research supplies wafer fabrication equipment (deposition, etch, clean) and aftermarket services (CSBG) to global semiconductor memory, foundry, and IDM customers. Non-U.S. sales constituted approximately 93% of total revenue in fiscal 2025; Samsung Electronics and TSMC are... Read more

$281.85+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 25 Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.27%
IncomeYield0.38%(5y avg 1.00%)Payout19.09%sustainable
Entry $252.04(50-day MA)Stop $234.40Target $286.72(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$311.66+10.6%32 analysts
$286.72our TP
$281.85price
$311.66mean
$220
$385

Wait for pullback to $252.04. At $281.85 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $252.04 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Samsung Electronics Company and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Lam Research Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Samsung Electronics Company and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.6
P/E (Fwd)34.5
Mkt Cap$341.9B
EV/EBITDA43.4
Profit Mgn30.9%
ROE66.8%
Rev Growth23.8%
Beta1.82
Dividend0.38%
Rating analysts41

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$125-55.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. sales93%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Non-U.S. sales...accounted for approximately 93%, 93%, and 91% of total revenue in fiscal years 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • HIGHCustomerSamsung Electronics Company and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
    10-K Item 1: 'Our most significant customers during the fiscal years ending June 29, 2025, June 30, 2024, and June 25, 2023 included Samsung Electronics Company, Ltd. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source components
    10-K Item 1: 'Certain components and sub-assemblies that we include in our products may only be obtained from a single supplier'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.4
Forward Pe
3.1
Peg Ratio
4.8
Analyst Target
5.0
Forward P/E: 34.5xPEG: 1.72Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $241.60Resistance $302.00

Price Targets

$234
$252
$287
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LRCX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $252.04. At $281.85 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $252.04 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Samsung Electronics Company and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $286.72 (+1.7%), stop $234.40 (−20.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LRCX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $286.72 (+13.8% upside). Target $286.72 (+1.7%), stop $234.40 (−20.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $234.40.

What are the risks of investing in LRCX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (93.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Samsung Electronics Company and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is LRCX overvalued or undervalued?

Lam Research Corporation trades at a P/E of 51.6 (forward 34.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LRCX?

41 analysts cover LRCX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $312.

What does Lam Research Corporation do?Lam Research supplies wafer fabrication equipment (deposition, etch, clean) and aftermarket services (CSBG) to global...

Lam Research supplies wafer fabrication equipment (deposition, etch, clean) and aftermarket services (CSBG) to global semiconductor memory, foundry, and IDM customers. Non-U.S. sales constituted approximately 93% of total revenue in fiscal 2025; Samsung Electronics and TSMC are the most significant customers.

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