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LPXLouisiana-Pacific CorporationSell4.8·$77.34+0.14%
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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.34: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood building products across three segments: Siding (62% of 2025 net sales), OSB structural panels (31%), and South American operations, with more than 20 facilities across North and South America and 4,300 employees. Revenue totaled... Read more

$77.34+2.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 19 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.22%
IncomeYield1.55%(5y avg 1.27%)Payout97.44%at-risk
Stop $71.93Target $79.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$91.50+18.3%12 analysts
$79.61our TP
$77.34price
$91.50mean
$66
$107

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.34: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

About Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Louisiana-Pacific generated $2.7 billion in net sales during 2025, with Siding products contributing 62% ($1.7 billion), OSB structural panels 31% ($832 million), and South American and other operations the remaining 7% ($187 million). The company operates more than 20 manufacturing facilities across the United States, Canada, Chile, and Brazil, employing approximately 4,300 workers, of whom roughly 1,200 are covered by collective bargaining or national trade union agreements.

LP sells through wholesale distributors, professional building-products dealers, and large retail home centers, with the top ten customers representing 47% of 2025 net sales. Siding products — the LP SmartSide and LP BuilderSeries lines — compete against vinyl and fiber cement alternatives based on product features, durability, and sustainability, while OSB commodity products compete primarily on price and availability. Wood fiber is the primary raw material; resin, sourced from five major suppliers, constitutes the second significant input with costs tied to petroleum prices. LP incurred $8 million in tariff costs during 2025 and notes that ongoing changes to U.S. trade policy could increase raw material costs further, though management does not expect tariff impacts to be material in 2026 absent further escalation.

Show full overview

The 10-K explicitly cites a high degree of product concentration in OSB, which accounted for 33% of North American net sales in 2025, down from 43% in both 2023 and 2024 as LP continues shifting production toward higher-margin Siding. Siding's relative resilience reflects the fact that over 50% of demand comes from repair-and-remodel and off-site structure markets rather than new residential construction; by contrast, OSB pricing is subject to significant commodity volatility tied to housing start cycles. U.S. housing starts totaled 1.364 million in 2025, nearly flat with 2024's 1.367 million, a level that constrains recovery runway for OSB pricing.

See also: Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

From Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jun 1, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: CFO Alan J.M. Haughie notified LP board of intention to retire effective Sept 1, 2026. Successor Aaron Howald (currently VP Investor Relations and Business Development) appointed CFO and SVP effective Sept 1, 2026. Haughie to serve in advisory capacity through Feb 28, 2027.

Generated 2026-06-17T10:41:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (2.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)66.0
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth-20.7%
Beta1.60
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$40-48.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers47%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top ten customers accounted for approximately 47% of our net sales'
  • MEDIUMProductOSB33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high degree of product concentration in OSB ... OSB accounted for about 33% of our North American net sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Alan J.M. Haughie notified LP board of intention to retire effective Sept 1, 2026. Successor Aaron Howald (currently VP Investor Relations and Business Development) appointed CFO and SVP effective Sept 1, 2026. Haughie to serve in advisory capacity through Feb 28, 2027.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
3.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.2
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
5.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.6
Net Margin
1.6
Operating Margin
2.6
Roa
2.8
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
9.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -80% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $66.12Resistance $79.69

Price Targets

$72
$80
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.34: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $71.93. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LPX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.61 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $71.93. Stop-loss: $71.93.

What are the risks of investing in LPX?

Target reached (2.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is LPX overvalued or undervalued?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 66.0 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LPX?

17 analysts cover LPX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Louisiana-Pacific Corporation do?Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood building products across three segments: Siding (62% of 2025 net sales),...

Louisiana-Pacific manufactures engineered wood building products across three segments: Siding (62% of 2025 net sales), OSB structural panels (31%), and South American operations, with more than 20 facilities across North and South America and 4,300 employees. Revenue totaled $2.7 billion in 2025, with the top ten customers representing approximately 47% of net sales.

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