Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.9 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
LPX · Why this verdict
Why Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is shrinking: the data shows a 12% decline, which leaves growth ranked at the bottom of its industry peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue should return to flat or positive year-over-year growth for the thesis of decline to fail within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBuilding-product demand is cyclical, and a trough in housing activity could produce a sharp rebound in volumes and pricing. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag: free cash flow is -178% of net income, and the business has no competitive moat, putting overall quality at 3.1 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion should stay weak unless capital spending or working capital normalizes. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and conservative debt levels suggest the balance sheet can absorb the cash drag. | ||
The price of $73.76 is only 3.5% below the $76.37 analyst target, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.24. Upside pct | Without higher analyst targets or an earnings rebound, upside to the target should remain in low single digits. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn earnings recovery from a depressed base could drive upward target revisions quickly. | ||
Earnings results are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, with the latest EPS of 0.40 missing the 0.57 estimate. Earnings | EPS should reach or exceed estimates in the November 3 report for confidence to improve. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe average surprise was strongly positive (about 98%) because estimates were very low, which suggests expectations have already been reset. | ||
The recent price rise looks like an overbought rally within a downtrend: RSI is 77 and the price is below a 200-day average sloping down 2.9% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | The price should pull back unless it reclaims the 200-day average on rising volume. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD indicate real accumulation that could turn the recovery into a durable trend. | ||
Revenue is shrinking: the data shows a 12% decline, which leaves growth ranked at the bottom of its industry peers.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should return to flat or positive year-over-year growth for the thesis of decline to fail within 12 months.
CounterBuilding-product demand is cyclical, and a trough in housing activity could produce a sharp rebound in volumes and pricing.
Earnings quality is a red flag: free cash flow is -178% of net income, and the business has no competitive moat, putting overall quality at 3.1 out of 10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion should stay weak unless capital spending or working capital normalizes.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and conservative debt levels suggest the balance sheet can absorb the cash drag.
The price of $73.76 is only 3.5% below the $76.37 analyst target, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.24.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Without higher analyst targets or an earnings rebound, upside to the target should remain in low single digits.
CounterAn earnings recovery from a depressed base could drive upward target revisions quickly.
Earnings results are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, with the latest EPS of 0.40 missing the 0.57 estimate.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should reach or exceed estimates in the November 3 report for confidence to improve.
CounterThe average surprise was strongly positive (about 98%) because estimates were very low, which suggests expectations have already been reset.
The recent price rise looks like an overbought rally within a downtrend: RSI is 77 and the price is below a 200-day average sloping down 2.9% over 30 days.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should pull back unless it reclaims the 200-day average on rising volume.
CounterRising on-balance volume and an improving MACD indicate real accumulation that could turn the recovery into a durable trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.8 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 10% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:102d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.5>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.69>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 7.5 and asymmetric R:R of -0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.5, Growth at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Quality at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Poor Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 50% from the current -178%.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 15% from the current 3.5%.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Overbought Bear RallyTripped
Trip ifPrice crosses above its 200-day average with RSI staying below 70.