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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $68.92: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Louisiana-Pacific is a building products manufacturer with two reportable segments: Siding (engineered wood siding, trim, soffit; 62% of 2025 net sales of $2.7B) and OSB (structural panel products; 31% of 2025 net sales), serving new home construction, repair and remodeling, and... Read more

$68.92+15.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#17 of 18 Building Products & Equipment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.41%
IncomeYield1.79%(5y avg 1.26%)Payout97.44%at-risk
Stop $64.17Target $79.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$91.50+32.8%12 analysts
$79.61our TP
$68.92price
$91.50mean
$107

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $68.92: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val6.8Qual3.4Grw5.0Mom1.3Sent7.1Ins5.6Peer2.5Tech6.3Risk5.54.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)57.3
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA15.4
Profit Mgn3.2%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth-20.7%
Beta1.59
Dividend1.79%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$40-42.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductOSB31%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high degree of product concentration in OSB, which is subject to commodity pricing and associated price volatility. OSB accounted for about 33% of our North American net sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers47%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, our top ten customers accounted for approximately 47% of our net sales.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Louisiana-Pacific disclosed compensation arrangements for Jason Ringblom as incoming CEO effective February 19, 2026 (succeeding the prior CEO). Ringblom's annual base salary set at $900,000 with 120% target annual incentive; appointment was originally announced October 30, 2025.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
3.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.6
Net Margin
1.6
Operating Margin
2.6
Roa
2.8
Moat
4.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Current Ratio
9.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -80% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $66.12Resistance $76.85

Price Targets

$64
$80
A.Upside+15.5%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $68.92: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $64.17. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LPX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.61 (+15.4% upside). Prior stop was $64.17. Stop-loss: $64.17.

What are the risks of investing in LPX?

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is LPX overvalued or undervalued?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 57.3 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LPX?

17 analysts cover LPX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Louisiana-Pacific Corporation do?Louisiana-Pacific is a building products manufacturer with two reportable segments: Siding (engineered wood siding,...

Louisiana-Pacific is a building products manufacturer with two reportable segments: Siding (engineered wood siding, trim, soffit; 62% of 2025 net sales of $2.7B) and OSB (structural panel products; 31% of 2025 net sales), serving new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structures markets in North and South America. Products are sold through wholesale distributors, professional dealers, and retail home centers; top 10 customers represent ~47% of net sales.

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