Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the LPX stock price target?

Take-profit $82.43 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $66.80.

Q: What are the risks of investing in LPX?

Concentration risk — Product: OSB (33.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum.

Q: Is LPX overvalued or undervalued?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 34.7 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about LPX?

17 analysts cover LPX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $95.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.51: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Louisiana-Pacific manufactures building solutions with Siding (1.69B, 62% of 2025 net sales), OSB (832M, 31%), and Other segments serving new home construction, repair/remodeling, and outdoor structures. Customers include retailers, wholesalers, and homebuilders across North and... Read more

$71.51+15.3% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#18 of 18 Building Products & Equipment

Stop $66.80Target $82.43(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1

Analyst target$94.75+32.5%12 analysts

$82.43our TP

$71.51price

$94.75mean

$115

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: OSB (33.0%)

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.7

P/E (Fwd)16.9

Mkt Cap$5.0B

EV/EBITDA12.7

Profit Mgn5.4%

ROE8.6%

Rev Growth-16.6%

Beta1.77

Dividend1.66%

Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish

IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductOSB33%
10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high degree of product concentration in OSB ... OSB accounted for about 33% of our North American net sales in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
CEO W. Bradley Southern retiring from Board effective February 19, 2026. Jason Ringblom appointed to Board as CEO-elect; F. Nicholas Grasberger III elected independent Chair. Succession planned; no disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
Amendment disclosing Jason Ringblom compensation as incoming CEO effective February 19, 2026: base salary 900,000, target bonus 120% of base, plus RSU and PSU equity awards. No new departure or appointment.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.915%0.89

Quality3.815%0.57

Growth0.015%0.00

Momentum2.810%0.28

Sentiment7.110%0.71

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank1.910%0.19

Technical Setup6.35%0.32

Risk Profile5.15%0.26

Catalyst6.75%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)3.93

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -16.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Declining revenue: -17%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.6

Quality Rank

1.7

Value Rank

5.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

4.5

Macd

7.7

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.3

Operating Margin

0.5

Fcf Quality

1.5

Net Margin

2.7

Roe

2.9

Roa

4.2

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

7.8

Current Ratio

9.3

Earnings quality RED FLAG: 18% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9

GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dA.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

44 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $68.87Resistance $77.88

Price Targets

$67

$82

A.Upside+15.3%

A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LPX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $71.51: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10 and A.R:R 1.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $66.80. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the LPX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $82.43 (+15.3% upside). Prior stop was $66.80. Stop-loss: $66.80.

What are the risks of investing in LPX?

Concentration risk — Product: OSB (33.0%); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is LPX overvalued or undervalued?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation trades at a P/E of 34.7 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LPX?

17 analysts cover LPX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Louisiana-Pacific Corporation do?Louisiana-Pacific manufactures building solutions with Siding (1.69B, 62% of 2025 net sales), OSB (832M, 31%), and...