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LPGDorian LPG Ltd.Buy Wait7.3·$54.49+1.72%
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality franchise with best-in-class margins, a perfect Piotroski financial health score, and 105% year-over-year revenue growth trades at an attractive forward valuation, but the stock offers only 3.5% headroom to the analyst take-profit target from current levels and must demonstrate that the most recent large earnings beat marks a durable reversal of the three prior quarterly misses.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Franchise QualityStable
  • Explosive Revenue GrowthStable
  • Weak Cash ConversionStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Wait for pullback to $51.76. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $54.49. Engine's entry $51.76 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Helios Pool (MOL Energia joint venture) (99.0%); Concentration risk — Product: VLGC segment (LPG shipping).

Dorian LPG owns and operates a fleet of 27 Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) transporting liquefied petroleum gas globally, with vessels commercially managed largely through the Helios Pool, a 50/50 joint venture with MOL Energia. The company earns charter hire and pool-profit... Read more

$54.49-14.7% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#6 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-5.22%
IncomeYield6.25%Payout39.12%sustainable
Entry $51.76(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $48.25Target $62.63(default +15%)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$53.40-2.0%5 analysts
$62.63our TP
$54.49price
$53.40mean
$46
$63

Wait for pullback to $51.76. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $54.49. Engine's entry $51.76 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Helios Pool (MOL Energia joint venture) (99.0%); Concentration risk — Product: VLGC segment (LPG shipping). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.01, quality 8.3/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 7.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Dorian LPG Ltd.

About Dorian LPG Ltd.

Dorian LPG operates a fleet of 27 Very Large Gas Carriers with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 2.3 million cubic meters as of May 22, 2026, transporting liquefied petroleum gas worldwide as a single reportable segment. The company's vessels are commercially managed largely through the Helios Pool, a 50/50 joint venture with MOL Energia, and the fleet - with an average age of 9.6 years - includes 16 ECO-design vessels fitted with scrubbers to reduce emissions and cut fuel costs.

Dorian earns charter hire and pool-profit income from global energy companies such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Royal Dutch Shell and commodity traders including Glencore and Vitol, employing vessels on a mix of time charters, spot voyages, and contracts of affreightment. The company competes for charters primarily against BW LPG, NYK Line, and Petredec, within a global VLGC fleet of 427 vessels where the top ten owners control 41% of tonnage. Because Dorian and the Helios Pool operate exclusively in the VLGC segment of the LPG shipping industry, the company has no alternate vessel class or cargo type to fall back on if LPG shipping demand weakens. Insurance, drydocking, and classification-society survey costs are recurring expenses tied to an aging fleet, and the company is also exposed to SOFR-linked floating-rate debt and non-U.S.-dollar operating costs.

Show full overview

Dorian's revenue is unusually concentrated in a single joint-venture arrangement: nearly all of its revenue now flows through the Helios Pool, which grew from approximately 95% of revenue in fiscal 2024 to 99% in fiscal 2026, meaning pool-level charter-rate weakness or a rupture in the MOL Energia relationship would affect nearly the entire top line at once. That exposure compounds a second, sector-wide concentration the 10-K flags directly: Dorian and the Helios Pool operate exclusively in the VLGC segment of LPG shipping, with no bulk carrier, tanker, or other vessel class to offset a downturn in LPG-specific charter rates, unlike more diversified shipping peers.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

From Dorian LPG Ltd.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.3 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Helios Pool (MOL Energia joint venture) (99.0%)
Concentration risk — Product: VLGC segment (LPG shipping)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.9
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn55.6%
ROE28.3%
Rev Growth124.0%
Beta0.76
Dividend6.25%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyHelios Pool (MOL Energia joint venture)99%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 99%, 97% and 95% of our revenues, respectively, were generated through the Helios Pool as net pool revenues—related party'
  • HIGHProductVLGC segment (LPG shipping)
    10-K Item 1A: 'We, and the Helios Pool, operate exclusively in the VLGC segment of the LPG shipping industry.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We expect to be dependent on a limited number of customers for a material part of our revenues'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded from eight to nine directors and appointed Christopher Wiernicki as a Class I director on May 5, 2026; no departure, routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
0.6
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.12Resistance $54.83

Price Targets

$48
$52
$63
A.Upside-14.7%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $51.76. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $54.49. Engine's entry $51.76 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Helios Pool (MOL Energia joint venture) (99.0%); Concentration risk — Product: VLGC segment (LPG shipping). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.01, quality 8.3/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $62.63 (+14.9%), stop $48.25 (−12.9%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 7.3/10, high confidence.

What is the LPG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.63 (-14.7% upside). Target $62.63 (+14.9%), stop $48.25 (−12.9%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $48.25.

What are the risks of investing in LPG?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Helios Pool (MOL Energia joint venture) (99.0%); Concentration risk — Product: VLGC segment (LPG shipping); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is LPG overvalued or undervalued?

Dorian LPG Ltd. trades at a P/E of 6.9 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about LPG?

11 analysts cover LPG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Dorian LPG Ltd. do?Dorian LPG owns and operates a fleet of 27 Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) transporting liquefied petroleum gas...

Dorian LPG owns and operates a fleet of 27 Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) transporting liquefied petroleum gas globally, with vessels commercially managed largely through the Helios Pool, a 50/50 joint venture with MOL Energia. The company earns charter hire and pool-profit income from spot voyages, time charters, and contracts of affreightment with global energy companies, commodity traders, and importers, generating approximately 99% of fiscal 2026 revenue through the Helios Pool. Its modern, fuel-efficient ECO-design fleet and scrubber-equipped vessels support its competitive position in a

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