Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
LPG · Why this verdict
Why Dorian LPG (LPG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Dorian LPG is a high-quality, high-margin LPG shipper with revenue more than doubling year over year, but the price has moved above the analyst target and momentum is weak, so upside looks limited near term.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue has risen from $84.2M (June 2025 quarter) to $187.9M (June 2026 quarter), and the company reports 124% YoY growth, showing the freight-rate upcycle is flowing through to sales. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should stay near or above the $188M consensus estimate for the next quarter over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping revenue is cyclical; revenue was $163M in late 2023 and fell to $76M by early 2025, so the current surge could reverse just as quickly. | ||
The business earns excellent returns (ROE 28%) and strong margins of 56%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a wide economic moat. Quality breakdown | Margins and ROE should hold near current levels as long as fleet utilization and rates stay firm. | →Stable |
| CounterPeak-cycle margins flatter returns; in a rate downturn, margins of 56% would compress sharply and the moat score would not protect earnings. | ||
The stock at $54.43 is above the $48.37 analyst target (distance to target -11.1%), so the market already prices in the upcycle and limited upside remains. Analyst target | Either earnings estimates and targets rise toward the current price, or the price consolidates down toward the target over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets lag a fast earnings upswing, so a stock above target can simply reflect stale targets rather than overvaluation, especially at 11.1x forward earnings. | ||
Earnings are not converting to cash: free cash flow is -37% of net income, a red flag on earnings quality for an otherwise profitable shipper. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive and close toward net income if fleet capex and newbuild payments normalize over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative free cash flow may just reflect heavy fleet investment timed ahead of the cycle, which would be growth capital rather than poor earnings quality. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.8/10 with falling on-balance volume and 9 insider sales (about $7.8M) in 90 days, while 99% of the counterparty exposure sits with a single pool. Bear case | Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold and insider selling should fade if sentiment turns. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe RSI near 36 and an uptrend pullback suggest a buying opportunity, and insider sales are only 0.34% of market cap, so the weakness may be a short-lived dip rather than a thesis problem. | ||
Quarterly revenue has risen from $84.2M (June 2025 quarter) to $187.9M (June 2026 quarter), and the company reports 124% YoY growth, showing the freight-rate upcycle is flowing through to sales.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay near or above the $188M consensus estimate for the next quarter over the next 12 months.
CounterShipping revenue is cyclical; revenue was $163M in late 2023 and fell to $76M by early 2025, so the current surge could reverse just as quickly.
The business earns excellent returns (ROE 28%) and strong margins of 56%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a wide economic moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and ROE should hold near current levels as long as fleet utilization and rates stay firm.
CounterPeak-cycle margins flatter returns; in a rate downturn, margins of 56% would compress sharply and the moat score would not protect earnings.
The stock at $54.43 is above the $48.37 analyst target (distance to target -11.1%), so the market already prices in the upcycle and limited upside remains.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Either earnings estimates and targets rise toward the current price, or the price consolidates down toward the target over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and targets lag a fast earnings upswing, so a stock above target can simply reflect stale targets rather than overvaluation, especially at 11.1x forward earnings.
Earnings are not converting to cash: free cash flow is -37% of net income, a red flag on earnings quality for an otherwise profitable shipper.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive and close toward net income if fleet capex and newbuild payments normalize over the next 12 months.
CounterNegative free cash flow may just reflect heavy fleet investment timed ahead of the cycle, which would be growth capital rather than poor earnings quality.
Momentum is weak at 3.8/10 with falling on-balance volume and 9 insider sales (about $7.8M) in 90 days, while 99% of the counterparty exposure sits with a single pool.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above the engine's 4.5 threshold and insider selling should fade if sentiment turns.
CounterThe RSI near 36 and an uptrend pullback suggest a buying opportunity, and insider sales are only 0.34% of market cap, so the weakness may be a short-lived dip rather than a thesis problem.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 56%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -37% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 124% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $7,837,127 (0.353% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.7 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $49.43 vs the analyst target $49.24: -0.4% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (3)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.35%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.04
Upside
-0.4%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (3.9)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -0.04 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.3, and Value at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Insider at 4.6, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Surge Vlgc Rates
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $150M, versus $187.9M in the latest quarter.
- P2Elite Margins And Returns
Trip ifNet margin falls below 40% from the current 56%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $57 so that the price is more than 5% below it, versus 11.1% above today.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 50% from the current -37%.
- P5Weak Momentum Concentration
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from 3.8 while insider net selling drops below $1M over 90 days.