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KWRQuaker HoughtonHold6.1·$170.72-0.41%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Strong cash conversion — free cash flow at roughly 10 times net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 — and healthy price momentum mask extreme risk conditions: a put-to-call ratio of 8.00, 16% short interest, and a stock price $42 above the options market's max pain level of $105; with only 0.3% upside to the analyst consensus target and a recent pattern of earnings underdelivery, the risk profile has breached the minimum acceptable threshold and warrants an exit.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Risk Options Short PositioningDeteriorating
  • Target Reached No Upside HeadroomStable
  • Earnings Delivery DeterioratingDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Quaker Houghton (KWR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $170.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Quaker Houghton formulates specialty industrial process fluids — metal removal, rolling lubricants, hydraulic fluids, and surface solutions — sold to steel, aluminum, automotive, and aerospace manufacturers in over 25 countries across three segments. Non-US subsidiaries... Read more

$170.72-4.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#12 of 41 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.40%
IncomeYield1.26%(5y avg 1.09%)Payout36.00%sustainable
Stop $158.77Target $196.33(default +15%)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$187.57+9.9%7 analysts
$196.33our TP
$170.72price
$187.57mean
$165
$200

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $170.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.3
P/E (Fwd)18.2
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE7.2%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta1.39
Dividend1.26%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV48%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. subsidiaries
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales by our non-U.S. subsidiaries accounted for approximately 63% to 67% of our consolidated net sales'
  • LOWProductmetal removal fluids19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Metal removal fluids ... 19.0'
  • LOWProductrolling lubricants18%
    10-K Item 1: 'Rolling lubricants ... 18.3'
  • LOWProducthydraulic fluids12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Hydraulic fluids ... 12.2'
  • LOWProductsurface solutions11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Surface solutions ... 10.9'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    SVP/Chief Global Operations Officer Jeffrey Fleck departed March 9, 2026 via involuntary termination without cause. No successor named. No disagreement with the Company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOW
    Board Chairman Michael F. Barry retired May 13, 2026 after serving since 2008. Mark A. Douglas appointed new Chairman. Board reduced from 11 to 10 directors. Lead Director role eliminated. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $137.18Resistance $175.14

Price Targets

$159
$196
A.Upside-4.4%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KWR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $170.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $196.33 (+15.0%), stop $158.77 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $196.33 (-4.4% upside). Target $196.33 (+15.0%), stop $158.77 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $158.77.

What are the risks of investing in KWR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Elevated risk factors.

Is KWR overvalued or undervalued?

Quaker Houghton trades at a P/E of 30.3 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KWR?

11 analysts cover KWR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $188.

What does Quaker Houghton do?Quaker Houghton formulates specialty industrial process fluids — metal removal, rolling lubricants, hydraulic fluids,...

Quaker Houghton formulates specialty industrial process fluids — metal removal, rolling lubricants, hydraulic fluids, and surface solutions — sold to steel, aluminum, automotive, and aerospace manufacturers in over 25 countries across three segments. Non-US subsidiaries generated 63% to 67% of consolidated net sales over the past three years, employing approximately 4,700 people globally.

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