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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Sell6.9·$83.54+0.20%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business combines high financial quality — Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, 53% return on equity, and 45% year-over-year growth — with an attractively priced forward multiple of 12.3x; however, with the current price just 1.5% below the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the setup favors maintaining an existing position rather than adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Thin AsymmetryStable
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegStable
  • Strong Piotroski QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. At $83.54, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$83.54-3.0% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#1 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.44%
IncomeYield2.54%(5y avg 3.44%)Payout42.34%sustainable
Stop $77.69Target $87.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$93.10+11.4%10 analysts
$87.18our TP
$83.54price
$93.10mean
$50
$131

Sell if holding. At $83.54, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.8
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE53.2%
Rev Growth45.0%
Beta0.90
Dividend2.54%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.26bullish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $79.64Resistance $88.96

Price Targets

$78
$87
A.Upside-3.0%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.0% upside)
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $83.54, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $77.69. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.18 (-3.0% upside). Prior stop was $77.69. Stop-loss: $77.69.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.8 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

14 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company)
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