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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Hold7.0·$85.00+1.42%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The business combines high financial quality — Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, 53% return on equity, and 45% year-over-year growth — with an attractively priced forward multiple of 12.3x; however, with the current price just 1.5% below the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the setup favors maintaining an existing position rather than adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Thin AsymmetryStable
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegStable
  • Strong Piotroski QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$85.00-1.0% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.36%
IncomeYield2.49%(5y avg 3.44%)Payout42.34%sustainable
Stop $79.05Target $84.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$92.40+8.7%10 analysts
$84.18our TP
$85.00price
$92.40mean
$50
$131

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.0/10
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn8.3%
ROE53.2%
Rev Growth45.0%
Beta0.90
Dividend2.49%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.54Resistance $85.90

Price Targets

$79
$84
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $85.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $84.18 (-1.0%), stop $79.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.18 (-1.0% upside). Target $84.18 (-1.0%), stop $79.05 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $79.05.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KTB?

13 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company)
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