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KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Sell6.5·$73.67+1.63%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

The business combines high financial quality — Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, 53% return on equity, and 45% year-over-year growth — with an attractively priced forward multiple of 12.3x; however, with the current price just 1.5% below the analyst consensus target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the setup favors maintaining an existing position rather than adding new exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Target Reached Thin AsymmetryImproving
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegImproving
  • Strong Piotroski QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $73.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%).

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the... Read more

$73.67+15.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield11.12%
IncomeYield2.84%(5y avg 3.44%)Payout42.71%sustainable
Stop $68.58Target $85.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$97.70+32.6%10 analysts
$85.00our TP
$73.67price
$97.70mean
$50
$136

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $73.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.1
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE49.5%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.91
Dividend2.84%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top customer, Walmart, accounted for 30% of our total net revenues in 2025, 2024 and 2023'
  • HIGHCustomerten largest customers53%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 53% of total net revenues in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicAsia manufacturing77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our units were purchased from independent manufacturers primarily located in Asia'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.2
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $70.70Resistance $85.52

Price Targets

$69
$85
A.Upside+15.4%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $73.67 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $68.58. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

What is the KTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.00 (+15.4% upside). Prior stop was $68.58. Stop-loss: $68.58.

What are the risks of investing in KTB?

Concentration risk — Customer: ten largest customers (53.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Asia manufacturing (77.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is KTB overvalued or undervalued?

Kontoor Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.1 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KTB?

14 analysts cover KTB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Kontoor Brands, Inc. do?Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net...

Kontoor Brands sells apparel under the Wrangler, Lee, and Helly Hansen brands through U.S. wholesale (64% of 2025 net revenues), international wholesale (21%), and direct-to-consumer (15%) channels in over 90 countries. Walmart accounted for 30% of net revenues in 2025, and the top ten customers represented 53% combined. The May 2025 acquisition of Helly Hansen for ~$957.5 million added a global outdoor and workwear brand.

Related stocks: FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · GIL (Gildan Activewear, Inc.) · LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co) · RL (Ralph Lauren Corporation) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company)
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