Karman Holdings is growing revenue at 51% year-over-year and carries a risk/reward ratio of roughly 12.9-to-1 in your favor, but the stock trades below all major moving averages with a death cross formation, free cash flow is negative, and customer concentration in the top three accounts exceeds half of total revenue — making the asymmetric setup contingent on an execution record the company has not yet fully established.
Thesis pillars
- Explosive Revenue Growth→Stable
- Customer Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Negative Price Momentum→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $39.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (51.5%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers.
Karman Holdings designs and manufactures payload protection, interstage, and propulsion systems for missile, defense, and space programs, generating $471.5 million in 2025 revenue, up 36.6% year-over-year. Revenue is nearly evenly split across Space & Launch (37%), Tactical... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $39.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (51.5%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 0, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and news legal. Suitability: speculative.
About Karman Holdings Inc.
About Karman Holdings Inc.
Karman Holdings generated $471.5 million in revenue in 2025, up 36.6% year over year, split across Space & Launch (36.9%), Hypersonics & Strategic Missile Defense (31.7%), and Tactical Missiles & Integrated Defense Systems (31.5%). The company supported more than 130 funded programs from approximately 80 customers in 2025, achieving a 30.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin with total backlog of $801.1 million at year-end.
Karman earns revenue from prime defense contractors under fixed-price and cost-plus contracts for payload protection systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. The three largest customers accounted for approximately 51.5% of 2025 revenue, with purchasing decisions ultimately dependent on U.S. Department of Defense appropriations across the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Missile Defense Agency. A significant share of revenue is derived from sole and single-source contract positions, created by lengthy requalification barriers once a supplier has been written into a program specification. The company completed nine acquisitions since its 2020 formation, adding capabilities in high-temperature composites, energetics and mechanical systems, and advanced materials. Multi-year fixed-price contracts expose Karman to cost overrun risk if labor or raw material inflation exceeds anticipated rates, as certain contracts do not permit recovery of input cost increases.
Show full overview
Karman's customer concentration is acute: the three largest buyers represent 51.5% of revenue, and program funding depends on congressional appropriations and DoD prioritization. A sustained shift away from hypersonics, missile defense, or commercial space spending could materially affect revenue. In March 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that CEO Anthony Koblinski retired effective March 23, 2026, with Jon Rambeau — formerly a segment president at L3Harris Technologies — appointed as successor; leadership continuity in a business where customer relationships are deeply embedded at the engineering level may affect near-term program capture momentum.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Karman Holdings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Karman Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Karman Holdings Slides After Disappointing Quarterly Earnings - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Karman Holdings Slides After Disappointing Quarterly Earnings - tipranks.com — tipranks.com negative
- NEWS Ranger Investment Management L.P. Raises Stock Holdings in Karman Holdings Inc. $KRMN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Karman Holdings Ord Shs (KRMN) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Karman Holdings Ord Shs (KRMN) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T19:57:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-3 customers52%10-K Item 1A: 'Our three largest customers accounted for approximately 51.5% of revenue during the year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We obtain certain of our hardware components, various subsystems and systems from a limited group of suppliers, some of which are sole source suppliers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUMCEO Anthony Koblinski announced retirement effective March 23, 2026; will remain on Board. Jon Rambeau (formerly segment president at L3Harris Technologies) appointed CEO effective March 23, 2026. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $39.66 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (51.5%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 0, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $38.02. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $75.78 (+90.8% upside). Prior stop was $38.02. Stop-loss: $38.02.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (51.5%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Karman Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 150.1 (forward 42.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover KRMN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $87.
What does Karman Holdings Inc. do?Karman Holdings designs and manufactures payload protection, interstage, and propulsion systems for missile, defense,...
Karman Holdings designs and manufactures payload protection, interstage, and propulsion systems for missile, defense, and space programs, generating $471.5 million in 2025 revenue, up 36.6% year-over-year. Revenue is nearly evenly split across Space & Launch (37%), Tactical Missiles (32%), and Hypersonics/Missile Defense (32%) end markets serving 80+ customers across 130+ programs.