Karman Holdings is growing revenue at 51% year-over-year and carries a risk/reward ratio of roughly 12.9-to-1 in your favor, but the stock trades below all major moving averages with a death cross formation, free cash flow is negative, and customer concentration in the top three accounts exceeds half of total revenue — making the asymmetric setup contingent on an execution record the company has not yet fully established.
Thesis pillars
- Explosive Revenue Growth→Stable
- Customer Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Negative Price Momentum→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Apr 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.17: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below long-term trend.
Karman Holdings designs and manufactures payload protection, interstage, and propulsion systems for missile, defense, and space programs, generating $471.5 million in 2025 revenue, up 36.6% year-over-year. Revenue is nearly evenly split across Space & Launch (37%), Tactical... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.17: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Karman Holdings Inc.
About Karman Holdings Inc.
Karman Holdings generated $471.5 million in revenue in 2025, up 36.6% year over year, split across Space & Launch (36.9%), Hypersonics & Strategic Missile Defense (31.7%), and Tactical Missiles & Integrated Defense Systems (31.5%). The company supported more than 130 funded programs from approximately 80 customers in 2025, achieving a 30.8% Adjusted EBITDA margin with total backlog of $801.1 million at year-end.
Karman earns revenue from prime defense contractors under fixed-price and cost-plus contracts for payload protection systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. The three largest customers accounted for approximately 51.5% of 2025 revenue, with purchasing decisions ultimately dependent on U.S. Department of Defense appropriations across the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Missile Defense Agency. A significant share of revenue is derived from sole and single-source contract positions, created by lengthy requalification barriers once a supplier has been written into a program specification. The company completed nine acquisitions since its 2020 formation, adding capabilities in high-temperature composites, energetics and mechanical systems, and advanced materials. Multi-year fixed-price contracts expose Karman to cost overrun risk if labor or raw material inflation exceeds anticipated rates, as certain contracts do not permit recovery of input cost increases.
Show full overview
Karman's customer concentration is acute: the three largest buyers represent 51.5% of revenue, and program funding depends on congressional appropriations and DoD prioritization. A sustained shift away from hypersonics, missile defense, or commercial space spending could materially affect revenue. In March 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that CEO Anthony Koblinski retired effective March 23, 2026, with Jon Rambeau — formerly a segment president at L3Harris Technologies — appointed as successor; leadership continuity in a business where customer relationships are deeply embedded at the engineering level may affect near-term program capture momentum.
See also: Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
From Karman Holdings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Karman Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Karman (NYSE:KRMN) Stock Price Up 9.2% - Should You Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stock Momentum Tracker: Karman Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KRMN) Adds 0.66% as P/E of 135.26 Meets EPS of USD 0.28 - Kalkine In — Kalkine India Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Karman (NYSE:KRMN) Stock Breaks Above 50-Day Moving Average After Analyst Downgrade - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Does Karman Stock's Valuation Make Sense? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-3 customers52%10-K Item 1A: 'Our three largest customers accounted for approximately 51.5% of revenue during the year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHSuppliersole source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'We obtain certain of our hardware components, various subsystems and systems from a limited group of suppliers, some of which are sole source suppliers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUMCEO Anthony Koblinski announced retirement effective March 23, 2026; will remain on Board. Jon Rambeau (formerly segment president at L3Harris Technologies) appointed CEO effective March 23, 2026. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 7.9% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.17: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $31.78. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $63.18 (+84.9% upside). Prior stop was $31.78. Stop-loss: $31.78.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-3 customers (51.5%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole source suppliers; Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).
Karman Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 122.0 (forward 35.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts rate KRMN, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $73.
What does Karman Holdings Inc. do?Karman Holdings designs and manufactures payload protection, interstage, and propulsion systems for missile, defense,...
Karman Holdings designs and manufactures payload protection, interstage, and propulsion systems for missile, defense, and space programs, generating $471.5 million in 2025 revenue, up 36.6% year-over-year. Revenue is nearly evenly split across Space & Launch (37%), Tactical Missiles (32%), and Hypersonics/Missile Defense (32%) end markets serving 80+ customers across 130+ programs.