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KMTKennametal Inc.Hold6.8·$31.22+2.76%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Three consecutive earnings beats, industry-leading growth near 22% per year, a near-perfect balance-sheet health score, and attractive forward valuation present strong fundamental credentials, but the stock trading above its analyst price target with estimates declining over the past month makes the near-term entry unattractive until the risk/reward resets.

Thesis pillars

  • Near Perfect Balance Sheet HealthImproving
  • Earnings Beat Streak ExecutionDeteriorating
  • Growth At Reasonable ValuationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Kennametal Inc. (KMT) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Tools & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

OVERVIEW With more than 85 years of materials expertise, Kennametal Inc. (the Company) is a global industrial technology leader, that helps customers across the General Engineering, Transportation, Earthworks, Energy and Aerospace & Defense end markets build their products with... Read more

$31.22-8.0% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 8 Tools & Accessories
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-6.81%
IncomeYield2.60%(5y avg 3.00%)Payout18.10%sustainable
Stop $29.21Target $40.04(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$33.00+5.7%7 analysts
$40.04our TP
$31.22price
$33.00mean
$27
$40

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15

Recent Developments — Kennametal Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jul 28, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 28, 2026, the Board of Directors ("Board") of Kennametal Inc. (the "Company") announced that Mr. William M.

Generated 2026-08-15T10:44:20Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.07% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.0
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA4.8
Profit Mgn14.5%
ROE23.9%
Rev Growth42.6%
Beta1.36
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV73%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-07-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 28, 2026, the Board of Directors ("Board") of Kennametal Inc. (the "Company") announced that Mr. William M.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 30, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Kennametal Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.3
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.11Resistance $40.86

Price Targets

$29
$40
A.Upside-8.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KMT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $40.04 (+28.3%), stop $29.21 (−6.9%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.04 (-8.0% upside). Target $40.04 (+28.3%), stop $29.21 (−6.9%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $29.21.

What are the risks of investing in KMT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.07% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is KMT overvalued or undervalued?

Kennametal Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KMT?

16 analysts cover KMT with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Kennametal Inc. do?OVERVIEW With more than 85 years of materials expertise, Kennametal Inc. (the Company) is a global industrial...

OVERVIEW With more than 85 years of materials expertise, Kennametal Inc. (the Company) is a global industrial technology leader, that helps customers across the General Engineering, Transportation, Earthworks, Energy and Aerospace & Defense end markets build their products with precision and efficiency. The Company was founded based on a tungsten carbide technology breakthrough in 1938 and was incorporated in Pennsylvania in 1943 as a manufacturer of tungsten carbide metal cutting tooling.

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