Strong price-to-operating-cash-flow momentum and a near-perfect financial health score sit alongside a stock trading above its price target with zero remaining upside, two recent earnings misses, and extreme options market hedging — the setup is unattractive for new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Financial Health Score→Stable
- Upside Exhaustion Above Target→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
St. Joe Company (The) (JOE) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida.
St. Joe Company owns 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, developing residential, hospitality, and commercial real estate primarily in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties where approximately 87% of its real estate is located. Revenue comes from homesite sales to homebuilders, hotel... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About St. Joe Company (The)
About St. Joe Company (The)
St. Joe's 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated within approximately 15 miles of the Gulf of America in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties, anchor a real estate development and asset management platform. The Bay-Walton Sector Plan entitles development of over 170,000 residential dwelling units and more than 22 million square feet of commercial space, with approximately 87% of the company's real estate in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. As of December 31, 2025, the company reported approximately $1,004.9 million in real estate investments on its books.
The company generates revenue through three segments: residential (homesite sales primarily to homebuilders, with 18 active builders in its communities), hospitality (the Watersound Club, branded hotels, gulf-front vacation rentals, marinas, and food and beverage operations), and commercial (multi-family, senior living, self-storage, medical, office, retail, and industrial properties, plus timber sales). The Latitude Margaritaville Watersound joint venture — a 3,700-home active adult development — contributed over 20% of pre-tax income in each of fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025; the filing identifies this as a concentration that could disproportionately impact overall financial performance. The company relies on a concentrated number of homebuilders for a significant portion of residential homesite sales, and elevated interest rates in recent years have affected buyer affordability.
Show full overview
St. Joe's geographic footprint in Northwest Florida exposes the company to hurricane risk: the filing notes insurance for hurricanes has limitations per named storm and is subject to deductibles, and that homeowner insurance companies in Florida have reacted to prior storms by increasing premiums, reducing limits, restricting coverage, and in some instances ceasing operations in the state. The state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corporation provides a backstop, but a catastrophic hurricane or series of storms may place extreme stress on state finances and suppress homebuyer demand in the company's primary markets.
See also: Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
From St. Joe Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — St. Joe Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS St. Joe’s extends hot streak with its first Liberty Bell Classic championship since 2016 - Inquirer.com — Inquirer.com neutral
- NEWS “American Pie” premieres at St. Joe’s in 1971 - sjuhawknews.com — sjuhawknews.com neutral
- NEWS St. Joe (NYSE:JOE) Share Price Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS St. Joe’s vs. Penn: Liberty Bell Classic Championship at Citizens Bank Park - Inquirer.com — Inquirer.com neutral
- NEWS St Joe : to Announce First Quarter 2026 Results and Hold Earnings Call for the First Quarter - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T17:32:23Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorthwest Florida10-K Item 1A: 'our business is especially sensitive to economic conditions in Northwest Florida, where our developments and assets are located'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyLatitude Margaritaville Watersound JV10-K Item 1A: 'our equity in income from the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV accounted for over 20% of our pre-tax income'
- MEDIUMCustomerhomebuilders10-K Item 1A: 'We also rely on a concentrated number of homebuilders for a significant portion of our residential homesite sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $60.74 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $58.68. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $66.39 (+9.4% upside). Prior stop was $58.68. Stop-loss: $58.68.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.5/10.
St. Joe Company (The) trades at a P/E of 31.8 (forward 557.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover JOE with a consensus score of 2.3/5.
What does St. Joe Company (The) do?St. Joe Company owns 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, developing residential, hospitality, and commercial real...
St. Joe Company owns 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, developing residential, hospitality, and commercial real estate primarily in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties where approximately 87% of its real estate is located. Revenue comes from homesite sales to homebuilders, hotel and club operations, commercial leasing, and timber sales, with 906 full-time employees. The Bay-Walton Sector Plan entitles the company to develop over 170,000 residential units and more than 22 million square feet of commercial space.