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HPQHP Inc.Sell5.2·$21.95-0.34%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

HP Inc. offers a combination of three consecutive earnings beats, a forward multiple of approximately 8 times, and free cash flow converting at 135% of net income — but a confirmed death cross and earnings estimates trending downward cap conviction and suggest the attractive valuation reflects limited near-term earnings momentum.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Beat Streak Three ConsecutiveStable
  • Attractive Valuation Cheap Vs PeersStable
  • Strong Fcf Conversion 135pctStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

HP Inc. (HPQ) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Canon laser engines.

HP Inc. designs and sells personal computers, printers, and related products and services through three segments—Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments—in more than 170 countries. Revenue comes from hardware sales, ink and toner supplies, managed print services,... Read more

$21.95+17.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#12 of 21 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield17.21%
IncomeYield5.47%(5y avg 3.59%)Payout43.66%sustainable
Stop $21.02Target $25.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$22.91+4.4%16 analysts
$25.86our TP
$21.95price
$22.91mean
$18
$30

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Canon laser engines. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About HP Inc.

About HP Inc.

HP Inc. outsources manufacturing to contract manufacturers worldwide while designing products around processors from Intel and AMD for personal computers and workstations, and Canon laser engines for printer hardware. The company held over 16,000 patents as of October 31, 2025, and employed approximately 55,000 people across operations in more than 170 countries. Three segments — Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments — define its product portfolio.

Personal Systems sells desktops, notebooks, AI-enabled workstations, thin clients, and retail point-of-sale systems across commercial (enterprise, public sector, SMB) and consumer (gaming, premium, Chromebook) lines. Printing generates hardware revenue alongside a recurring supplies stream — ink and toner cartridges, media, industrial graphics materials, and 3D printing consumables — which constitutes the margin engine across consumer and commercial printing. Distribution flows primarily through channel resellers including retailers, resellers, distribution partners, and system integrators, with direct sales accounting for a smaller share. Primary competitors in Personal Systems include Lenovo, Dell, Acer, and Apple; Printing competes against Canon, Seiko Epson, Brother Industries, and Xerox. The company also faces pressure from third-party supplies manufacturers offering lower-cost alternatives to HP original ink and toner cartridges.

Show full overview

Single-source supply dependencies expose HP Inc. to material disruption risk: the company relies on Canon for certain laser printer engines and laser toner cartridges, and the filing notes that replacing a single-source supplier could delay production, that alternative sources may not exist for certain components, and that suppliers may unilaterally modify or terminate short-term supply agreements. Geographic concentration of manufacturing and supplier operations in certain regions could compound these vulnerabilities if diversification initiatives — which the 10-K acknowledges are ongoing and subject to regulatory and operational hurdles — prove slower than expected.

See also: Technology · Computer Hardware

From HP Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 46%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Canon laser engines
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)7.3
Mkt Cap$20.1B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn4.4%
ROE
Rev Growth9.0%
Beta1.18
Dividend5.47%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.74bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierCanon laser engines
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on Canon for certain laser printer engines and laser toner cartridges'
  • MEDIUMSupplierIntel, AMD, and NVIDIA processors
    10-K Item 1A: 'We also rely on Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA, or other suppliers to provide us with a sufficient supply of processors for the majority of our PCs and workstations'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    At HP's 2026 Annual Meeting on April 16, 2026, stockholders approved the Fifth Amended and Restated 2004 Stock Incentive Plan, making 73,600,000 additional shares of common stock available for issuance. No officer departure; routine compensatory arrangement approval.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.67Resistance $26.39

Price Targets

$21
$26
A.Upside+17.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! momentum at 1.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HPQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $21.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Canon laser engines. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.02. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HPQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.86 (+17.9% upside). Prior stop was $21.02. Stop-loss: $21.02.

What are the risks of investing in HPQ?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Canon laser engines; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is HPQ overvalued or undervalued?

HP Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HPQ?

26 analysts cover HPQ with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $23.

What does HP Inc. do?HP Inc. designs and sells personal computers, printers, and related products and services through three...

HP Inc. designs and sells personal computers, printers, and related products and services through three segments—Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments—in more than 170 countries. Revenue comes from hardware sales, ink and toner supplies, managed print services, and subscriptions to consumers, SMBs, and enterprises. The company employs approximately 55,000 people and holds over 16,000 patents.

Related stocks: WDC (Western Digital Corporation) · STX (Seagate Technology Holdings PLC) · SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.) · RGTI (Rigetti Computing, Inc.) · QUBT (Quantum Computing Inc.)
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