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HP Inc. (HPQ) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

HP is a global technology company with Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments segments operating in 170+ countries. Revenue comes from hardware sales, ink/toner supplies, and services including managed print and device subscriptions to commercial enterprises,... Read more

$20.05+4.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#12 of 14 Computer Hardware
Stop $18.62Target $20.98(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$19.43-3.1%16 analysts
$20.98our TP
$20.05price
$19.43mean
$16
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-12.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$18.5B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE
Rev Growth6.9%
Beta1.13
Dividend5.96%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$13-35.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierCanon
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on Canon for certain laser printer engines and laser toner cartridges'
  • MEDIUMSupplierIntel, AMD, and NVIDIA processors
    10-K Item 1A: 'We also rely on Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA, or other suppliers to provide us with a sufficient supply of processors for the majority of our PCs and workstations'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-03Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Enrique Lores stepped down effective Feb 2, 2026 to pursue outside opportunity. Bruce Broussard appointed interim CEO. Board formed CEO Search Committee; no permanent replacement named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved Fifth Amended and Restated HP Inc. 2004 Stock Incentive Plan at 2026 Annual Meeting, adding 73,600,000 shares for equity awards. Routine compensatory arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.7
Revenue Growth
4.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.1
Net Margin
2.2
Operating Margin
2.5
Current Ratio
3.0
Roa
3.7
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Fcf Quality
7.6
No competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
3.2
52w Position
4.1
Support Resistance
4.2
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.12Resistance $21.41

Price Targets

$19
$21
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HPQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $18.62. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HPQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.98 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $18.62. Stop-loss: $18.62.

What are the risks of investing in HPQ?

Target reached (-12.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is HPQ overvalued or undervalued?

HP Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HPQ?

26 analysts cover HPQ with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does HP Inc. do?HP is a global technology company with Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments segments operating in 170+...

HP is a global technology company with Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments segments operating in 170+ countries. Revenue comes from hardware sales, ink/toner supplies, and services including managed print and device subscriptions to commercial enterprises, SMBs, and consumers.

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