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HNIHNI CorporationSell5.5·$48.23-0.25%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

A deeply discounted furnishings company trading at 6.8 times forward earnings with analyst consensus implying roughly 80% upside, but a confirmed long-term downtrend, free cash flow deeply negative relative to net income, and business quality below the minimum investable threshold combine to make this a value trap candidate rather than a value opportunity.

Thesis pillars

  • Severe Cash Flow Quality FailureStable
  • Confirmed Death Cross DowntrendStable
  • Elevated Options Bearish PositioningStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

HNI Corporation (HNI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

HNI is a manufacturer of workplace furnishings and residential building products. Within workplace furnishings, the Corporation is the thought leader in commercial furnishings and the preeminent global designer, innovator, and provider of workplace solutions going to market... Read more

$48.23+22.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 14 Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.99%
Stop $45.47Target $59.29(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$69.75+44.6%4 analysts
$59.29our TP
$48.23price
$69.75mean
$73

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 23%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn0.1%
ROE0.3%
Rev Growth120.7%
Beta0.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.00bullish
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$55+14.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $45.07Resistance $50.06

Price Targets

$45
$59
A.Upside+22.9%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HNI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.23 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $45.47. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the HNI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.29 (+22.9% upside). Prior stop was $45.47. Stop-loss: $45.47.

What are the risks of investing in HNI?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is HNI overvalued or undervalued?

HNI Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HNI?

6 analysts cover HNI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $70.

What does HNI Corporation do?HNI is a manufacturer of workplace furnishings and residential building products. Within workplace furnishings, the...

HNI is a manufacturer of workplace furnishings and residential building products. Within workplace furnishings, the Corporation is the thought leader in commercial furnishings and the preeminent global designer, innovator, and provider of workplace solutions going to market under unique brands serving multiple channels and customers from the largest multinational companies to small local businesses.

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