Hillman Solutions offers a compelling valuation at roughly 11x forward earnings with 32% upside to the analyst target and a roughly 4.6-to-1 risk/reward in the investor's favor, but the absence of a competitive moat, below-average quality metrics, and a confirmed downtrend despite an overbought near-term rally argue for patience over immediate deployment.
Thesis pillars
- No Moat Below Average Quality→Stable
- Deep Value Large Upside To Target→Stable
- Recovery Momentum Vs Downtrend Conflict↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Hillman Solutions Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Hillman Solutions Corp. ($HLMN) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS HLMN Hillman Solutions posts Q4 2025 earnings above estimates, with stock climbing on solid year-over-year revenue growt — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La positive
- NEWS Earnings Preview: HLMN to Report Financial Results Post-market on April 27 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS Hillman Solutions (NASDAQ:HLMN) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.01 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Industrial Goods Companies: Equifax (EFX), Hillman Solutions (HLMN) and Northrop Grumman (NOC — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two customers43%10-K Item 1: 'the top two of which accounted for approximately $674.3 million, or approximately 43% of our total revenues in 2025'
- LOWCustomerHome Depot23%10-K Item 1: 'Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues'
- LOWCustomerLowe's21%10-K Item 1: 'Lowe’s was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9% of our total revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina sourcing33%10-K Item 1A: 'We estimate we source approximately 33% of our products from China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $7.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $10.44 (+31.0%), stop $7.41 (−7.6%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.44 (+31.0% upside). Target $10.44 (+31.0%), stop $7.41 (−7.6%), A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $7.41.
Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 44.3 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE —...
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025. Home Depot and Lowe's together represent 43% of revenue; proprietary robotic key duplication kiosks (MinuteKey, KeyKrafter) deployed at retailer locations provide a recurring equipment-and-consumables revenue stream.