Hillman Solutions offers a compelling valuation at roughly 11x forward earnings with 32% upside to the analyst target and a roughly 4.6-to-1 risk/reward in the investor's favor, but the absence of a competitive moat, below-average quality metrics, and a confirmed downtrend despite an overbought near-term rally argue for patience over immediate deployment.
Thesis pillars
- No Moat Below Average Quality→Stable
- Deep Value Large Upside To Target→Stable
- Recovery Momentum Vs Downtrend Conflict↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.68 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.68 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Hillman Solutions Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Hillman Solutions Corp. ($HLMN) CEO 2025 Pay Revealed - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS HLMN Hillman Solutions posts Q4 2025 earnings above estimates, with stock climbing on solid year-over-year revenue growt — Cổng thông tin điện tử Tỉnh Sơn La positive
- NEWS Earnings Preview: HLMN to Report Financial Results Post-market on April 27 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS FMR LLC Adds to Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) Stake -- Shares Trade Below GF Value - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS HLMN vs. HCMLY: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T12:07:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two customers43%10-K Item 1: 'the top two of which accounted for approximately $674.3 million, or approximately 43% of our total revenues in 2025'
- LOWCustomerHome Depot23%10-K Item 1: 'Home Depot was the single largest customer, representing approximately $349.9 million or 22.5% of our total revenues'
- LOWCustomerLowe's21%10-K Item 1: 'Lowe’s was the second largest customer at approximately $324.4 million or 20.9% of our total revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina sourcing33%10-K Item 1A: 'We estimate we source approximately 33% of our products from China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $7.68 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $7.14. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.81 (+40.8% upside). Prior stop was $7.14. Stop-loss: $7.14.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Hillman Solutions Corp. trades at a P/E of 38.4 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover HLMN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Hillman Solutions Corp. do?Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE —...
Hillman Solutions distributes hardware-related products — fasteners, keys, builders hardware, rope and chain, and PPE — to North American retail chains through Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions, and Canada segments, generating $1,552.2 million in net sales in 2025. Home Depot and Lowe's together represent 43% of revenue; proprietary robotic key duplication kiosks (MinuteKey, KeyKrafter) deployed at retailer locations provide a recurring equipment-and-consumables revenue stream.