A medical care facilities operator with four consecutive earnings beats, best-in-class peer margins, and an attractive forward valuation of 11.8x offers roughly 16% upside to the analyst consensus target in a technical recovery setup — with the primary risk being that soft underlying growth limits re-rating potential beyond the current target.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Recovery With Volume↑Improving
- Best In Class Peer Margins↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $382.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Below 200-day MA.
HCA Healthcare operated 190 hospitals and 152 freestanding outpatient facilities across 19 states and England at December 31, 2025. The company generated $75.6 billion in revenues in 2025, with 49% from managed care and private insurers, 33% from Medicare programs, and 13% from... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $382.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About HCA Healthcare, Inc.
About HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA Healthcare generated $75.6 billion in revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, operating 190 hospitals — 179 general acute care, seven behavioral, and four rehabilitation — plus 121 freestanding ambulatory surgery centers and 31 freestanding endoscopy centers across 19 states and England. Managed care and private insurers accounted for 48.9% of revenues, with Medicare and Managed Medicare combined contributing 32.7% and Medicaid programs 12.7%. The company is incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
HCA earns revenue through inpatient and outpatient services reimbursed under Medicare and Medicaid prospective payment systems, negotiated managed care contracts, and direct patient payments. For federal fiscal year 2026, CMS increased inpatient MS-DRG payment rates by approximately 2.6%, reflecting a 3.3% market basket update reduced by a 0.7 percentage point productivity adjustment; outpatient PPS rates increased by the same margin. Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, exposing the company to state-specific regulatory, economic, and weather conditions. Labor represents a significant cost factor: the company competes for nurses, physicians, and other clinical staff in tight markets, faces mandatory staffing-ratio requirements in certain states, and may incur higher contract labor costs during shortages. HCA's total indebtedness stood at $46.5 billion at December 31, 2025, subject to covenants in its senior unsecured credit facility and note indentures.
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HCA's payer mix exposes the company to federal reimbursement policy changes. CMS outpatient rates face an additional 0.5% annual reduction for approximately 16 years beginning in 2026, an offset from the U.S. Supreme Court's June 2022 ruling that invalidated CMS's 340B payment reduction policy — a recovery mechanism that could weigh on outpatient revenue margins over the period. Separately, the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program can reduce inpatient payments by up to 3% for facilities with excess 30-day readmission rates across six designated conditions, including heart attack and pneumonia, adding performance-contingent risk on top of base rate dynamics.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HCA Healthcare Shares Drop After Quarterly Earnings Squeezed by Payer Mix Shifts - WSJ — WSJ negative
- NEWS HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Still Trades At A Discount Despite A 52% Return - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS HCA Healthcare Trims 2026 Profit Outlook, Stock Falls - Sahm — Sahm negative
- NEWS RBC Capital cuts HCA Healthcare stock price target on guidance concerns - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS 5-Day Sell-Off Sends HCA Healthcare Stock Down 14% - Trefis — Trefis negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida and Texas10-K Item 1: 'Our facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, which makes us sensitive to regulatory, economic, public health, environmental and competitive conditions'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $382.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $422.19 (+10.5%), stop $355.44 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $422.19 (+10.5% upside). Target $422.19 (+10.5%), stop $355.44 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $355.44.
Weak growth; Below 200-day MA.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
30 analysts cover HCA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $469.
What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?HCA Healthcare operated 190 hospitals and 152 freestanding outpatient facilities across 19 states and England at...
HCA Healthcare operated 190 hospitals and 152 freestanding outpatient facilities across 19 states and England at December 31, 2025. The company generated $75.6 billion in revenues in 2025, with 49% from managed care and private insurers, 33% from Medicare programs, and 13% from Medicaid programs. Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas.