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The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. At $177.67, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%).

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing care. Revenue is derived primarily from Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (24.7%) government programs;... Read more

$177.67+7.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#11 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.81%
IncomeYield0.15%(5y avg 0.21%)Payout4.15%sustainable
Stop $165.93Target $191.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$220.40+24.1%5 analysts
$191.75our TP
$177.67price
$220.40mean
$230

Sell if holding. At $177.67, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val5.2Qual4.6Grw6.8Mom5.7Sent6.6Ins5.0Peer4.0Tech6.7Risk6.75.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — The Ensign Group, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%)
Thin upside margin: 7.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.9
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$10.4B
EV/EBITDA21.5
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.73
Dividend0.15%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductskilled nursing facilities96%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 95.6% of our revenue from our skilled nursing facilities'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicaid46%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Medicaid is our largest source of revenue, accounting for 45.8% and 46.0% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 23.7% and 24.9% of our service revenue from the Medicare programs for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $167.53Resistance $203.85

Price Targets

$166
$192
A.Upside+7.9%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ENSG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $177.67, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $165.93. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ENSG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $191.75 (+7.9% upside). Prior stop was $165.93. Stop-loss: $165.93.

What are the risks of investing in ENSG?

Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%); Thin upside margin: 7.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Is ENSG overvalued or undervalued?

The Ensign Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ENSG?

11 analysts cover ENSG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $220.

What does The Ensign Group, Inc. do?Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries,...

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing care. Revenue is derived primarily from Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (24.7%) government programs; the company also owns 158 real estate properties through its captive REIT, Standard Bearer.

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