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ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc.Sell5.4·$156.93+4.13%
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The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $156.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%).

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing care. Revenue is derived primarily from Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (24.7%) government programs;... Read more

$156.93+22.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#19 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.31%
IncomeYield0.17%(5y avg 0.21%)Payout4.15%sustainable
Stop $145.94Target $191.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$220.40+40.4%5 analysts
$191.75our TP
$156.93price
$220.40mean
$230

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $156.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About The Ensign Group, Inc.

About The Ensign Group, Inc.

The Ensign Group operated 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities with 37,911 operational skilled nursing beds across 17 states at December 31, 2025, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing services. Medicaid accounted for 45.8% of 2025 total revenue—the largest single source—while Medicare contributed 23.7% of service revenue. Between January 2021 and December 2025, the company added 145 facilities and 14,739 operational skilled nursing beds through acquisition, bringing the cumulative total to 37,911 beds from 25,032 in 2021.

Ensign earns skilled services revenue from four payer channels—Medicaid (46.6% of skilled services revenue in 2025), Medicare (24.7%), managed care, and private pay—by operating high-acuity post-acute care facilities serving patients recovering from strokes, cardiovascular conditions, neurological disorders, and joint replacements. The Standard Bearer subsidiary owns 152 real estate properties under a captive REIT structure; 116 are leased to the company's own independent subsidiaries (eliminated in consolidation) while 37 are leased to third-party operators, contributing $19.3 million in non-eliminated rental revenue out of total rental revenues of $126.9 million in 2025. Senior living, mobile diagnostics, transportation, and other ancillary services together comprise approximately 4.6% of annual revenue. Ensign's Five-Star Quality Rating average across all facilities was 6.8% above the national average at December 2025.

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Ensign's Medicaid dependency exposes the company to federal and state budget decisions that may alter reimbursement terms rapidly. The OBBB, signed into law July 4, 2025, imposed work requirements for Medicaid eligibility, mandated state eligibility redeterminations every six months rather than annually, and prohibited new provider taxes—removing a mechanism many states used to generate Medicaid funding. California, Texas, and Arizona are specifically named in the 10-K as states where budget reductions or delays could adversely affect net patient service revenue and profitability, representing a geographic concentration within an already Medicaid-dependent revenue model.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

From The Ensign Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.6
P/E (Fwd)18.1
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA18.7
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.68
Dividend0.17%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.38bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$270+72.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductskilled nursing facilities96%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 95.6% of our revenue from our skilled nursing facilities'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicaid46%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Medicaid is our largest source of revenue, accounting for 45.8% and 46.0% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryMedicare24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 23.7% and 24.9% of our service revenue from the Medicare programs for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.1
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $141.58Resistance $178.52

Price Targets

$146
$192
A.Upside+22.2%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ENSG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $156.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $145.94. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ENSG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $191.75 (+22.2% upside). Prior stop was $145.94. Stop-loss: $145.94.

What are the risks of investing in ENSG?

Concentration risk — Product: skilled nursing facilities (95.6%); Negative momentum.

Is ENSG overvalued or undervalued?

The Ensign Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ENSG?

11 analysts cover ENSG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $220.

What does The Ensign Group, Inc. do?Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries,...

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of revenue from skilled nursing care. Revenue is derived primarily from Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (24.7%) government programs; the company also owns 158 real estate properties through its captive REIT, Standard Bearer.

Related stocks: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · EHC (Encompass Health Corporation)
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