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The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $175.78. At $185.03 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $175.78 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of 2025 revenue from SNFs. Revenue is primarily Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (23.7%) reimbursements. Standard Bearer REIT... Read more

$185.03+9.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#19 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Entry $175.78(5% below current)Stop $165.18Target $191.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$220.40+19.1%5 analysts
$191.75our TP
$185.03price
$220.40mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $175.78. At $185.03 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $175.78 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.9
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$10.9B
EV/EBITDA23.4
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth20.2%
Beta0.82
Dividend0.14%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.36bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$180-2.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerMedicaid46%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Medicaid is our largest source of revenue, accounting for 45.8% and 46.0% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • LOWCustomerMedicare24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived 23.7% and 24.9% of our service revenue from the Medicare programs for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Texas and Arizona
    10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our revenue is generated from our skilled nursing independent subsidiaries in California, Texas and Arizona'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.2
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Quality Rank
6.3
Growth Rank
8.1
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $182.01Resistance $206.80

Price Targets

$165
$176
$192
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ENSG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $175.78. At $185.03 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $175.78 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 3.6%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $191.75 (+3.6%), stop $165.18 (−12.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ENSG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $191.75 (+9.1% upside). Target $191.75 (+3.6%), stop $165.18 (−12.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $165.18.

What are the risks of investing in ENSG?

Thin upside margin: 3.6%.

Is ENSG overvalued or undervalued?

The Ensign Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.9 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ENSG?

11 analysts cover ENSG with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $220.

What does The Ensign Group, Inc. do?Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries,...

Ensign Group operates 373 skilled nursing and senior living facilities in 17 states through independent subsidiaries, generating approximately 95.6% of 2025 revenue from SNFs. Revenue is primarily Medicaid (45.8%) and Medicare (23.7%) reimbursements. Standard Bearer REIT subsidiary owns 158 healthcare real estate properties, leasing 38 to third-party operators.

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