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HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. At $431.60, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas.

HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals—179 general acute care, 7 behavioral, and 4 rehabilitation—plus 121 ASCs and 31 endoscopy centers across 19 states and England. The company generated $75.6 billion in revenues in 2025, with managed care and other insurers at 48.9%, Managed... Read more

$431.60+7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#8 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $409.52Target $461.79(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$513.10+18.9%21 analysts
$461.79our TP
$431.60price
$513.10mean
$396
$635

Sell if holding. At $431.60, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas
Thin upside margin: 7.1%
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.0
P/E (Fwd)13.1
Mkt Cap$96.7B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta1.37
Dividend0.72%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV38%normal
Max Pain$610+41.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicFlorida and Texas
    10-K Item 1: 'Our facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    HCA Compensation Committee adopted 2026 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program on Feb 24, 2026. CEO Hazen eligible for 175% of base salary; CFO Marks and COO Foster at 125%. Compensatory arrangement; no departure named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Earnings Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $422.19Resistance $512.14

Price Targets

$410
$462
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $431.60, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $409.52. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HCA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $461.79 (+7.1% upside). Prior stop was $409.52. Stop-loss: $409.52.

What are the risks of investing in HCA?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Weak growth.

Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?

HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HCA?

31 analysts cover HCA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $513.

What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals—179 general acute care, 7 behavioral, and 4 rehabilitation—plus 121 ASCs and 31...

HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals—179 general acute care, 7 behavioral, and 4 rehabilitation—plus 121 ASCs and 31 endoscopy centers across 19 states and England. The company generated $75.6 billion in revenues in 2025, with managed care and other insurers at 48.9%, Managed Medicare at 17.8%, and Medicare at 14.9% of revenues.

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