A medical care facilities operator with four consecutive earnings beats, best-in-class peer margins, and an attractive forward valuation of 11.8x offers roughly 16% upside to the analyst consensus target in a technical recovery setup — with the primary risk being that soft underlying growth limits re-rating potential beyond the current target.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Recovery With Volume↑Improving
- Best In Class Peer Margins↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026· older than 90 days
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $510.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
HCA Healthcare operated 190 hospitals and 152 freestanding outpatient facilities across 19 states and England at December 31, 2025. The company generated $75.6 billion in revenues in 2025, with 49% from managed care and private insurers, 33% from Medicare programs, and 13% from... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $510.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About HCA Healthcare, Inc.
About HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA Healthcare generated $75.6 billion in revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, operating 190 hospitals — 179 general acute care, seven behavioral, and four rehabilitation — plus 121 freestanding ambulatory surgery centers and 31 freestanding endoscopy centers across 19 states and England. Managed care and private insurers accounted for 48.9% of revenues, with Medicare and Managed Medicare combined contributing 32.7% and Medicaid programs 12.7%. The company is incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
HCA earns revenue through inpatient and outpatient services reimbursed under Medicare and Medicaid prospective payment systems, negotiated managed care contracts, and direct patient payments. For federal fiscal year 2026, CMS increased inpatient MS-DRG payment rates by approximately 2.6%, reflecting a 3.3% market basket update reduced by a 0.7 percentage point productivity adjustment; outpatient PPS rates increased by the same margin. Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, exposing the company to state-specific regulatory, economic, and weather conditions. Labor represents a significant cost factor: the company competes for nurses, physicians, and other clinical staff in tight markets, faces mandatory staffing-ratio requirements in certain states, and may incur higher contract labor costs during shortages. HCA's total indebtedness stood at $46.5 billion at December 31, 2025, subject to covenants in its senior unsecured credit facility and note indentures.
Show full overview
HCA's payer mix exposes the company to federal reimbursement policy changes. CMS outpatient rates face an additional 0.5% annual reduction for approximately 16 years beginning in 2026, an offset from the U.S. Supreme Court's June 2022 ruling that invalidated CMS's 340B payment reduction policy — a recovery mechanism that could weigh on outpatient revenue margins over the period. Separately, the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program can reduce inpatient payments by up to 3% for facilities with excess 30-day readmission rates across six designated conditions, including heart attack and pneumonia, adding performance-contingent risk on top of base rate dynamics.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HCA Healthcare shares slide following third-quarter earnings call - The Business Journals — The Business Journals Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS HCA Healthcare Inc. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock May Be 46% Undervalued Following Cape Coral Hospital Incentives - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS HCA Earnings Lift Two Hospital Stocks Near Buy Points - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS HCA signals flat 2027 earnings as Medicaid payments drop; shares slide - Reuters — Reuters Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicFlorida and Texas10-K Item 1: 'Our facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, which makes us sensitive to regulatory, economic, public health, environmental and competitive conditions'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $510.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $427.91 reached (−16.2%), stop $474.95 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $427.91 reached (−16.2% from $510.70); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $427.91 reached (−16.2%), stop $474.95 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $474.95.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts rate HCA, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $475.
What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?HCA Healthcare operated 190 hospitals and 152 freestanding outpatient facilities across 19 states and England at...
HCA Healthcare operated 190 hospitals and 152 freestanding outpatient facilities across 19 states and England at December 31, 2025. The company generated $75.6 billion in revenues in 2025, with 49% from managed care and private insurers, 33% from Medicare programs, and 13% from Medicaid programs. Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas.