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HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $404.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth.

HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals (179 acute care, 7 behavioral, 4 rehab), 121 freestanding ASCs, and 31 endoscopy centers across 19 US states and England, generating $75.6 billion in 2025 revenues. Revenue comes primarily from managed care/private insurers (48.9%), Medicare... Read more

$404.69+13.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#10 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.11%
IncomeYield0.74%(5y avg 0.77%)Payout10.13%sustainable
Stop $386.98Target $459.86(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$510.95+26.3%21 analysts
$459.86our TP
$404.69price
$510.95mean
$635

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $404.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.3Qual5.8Grw3.9Mom3.7Sent7.2Ins5.0Peer5.4Tech7.4Risk5.85.7OVERALL

Recent Developments — HCA Healthcare, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$93.8B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE—
Rev Growth4.3%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.74%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.87bearish
IV34%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicFlorida and Texas
    10-K Item 1: 'Our facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas, which makes us sensitive to regulatory, economic, public health, environmental and competitive conditions and changes in those states.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    HCA Compensation Committee adopted the 2026 Executive Officer Performance Excellence Program on Feb 24, 2026, setting performance award opportunities (80% EBITDA targets, 20% quality metrics) for named executive officers including CEO (175% of base salary) and CFO/COO (125% of base salary).
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Volume
9.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Earnings Growth
4.2
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $398.95Resistance $479.44

Price Targets

$387
$460
A.Upside+13.6%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $404.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $459.86 (+13.6%), stop $386.98 (−4.6%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HCA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $459.86 (+13.6% upside). Target $459.86 (+13.6%), stop $386.98 (−4.6%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $386.98.

What are the risks of investing in HCA?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida and Texas; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is HCA overvalued or undervalued?

HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HCA?

30 analysts cover HCA with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $511.

What does HCA Healthcare, Inc. do?HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals (179 acute care, 7 behavioral, 4 rehab), 121 freestanding ASCs, and 31 endoscopy...

HCA Healthcare operates 190 hospitals (179 acute care, 7 behavioral, 4 rehab), 121 freestanding ASCs, and 31 endoscopy centers across 19 US states and England, generating $75.6 billion in 2025 revenues. Revenue comes primarily from managed care/private insurers (48.9%), Medicare (32.7% combined), and Medicaid (12.7% combined). Facilities are heavily concentrated in Florida and Texas.

Related stocks: THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · EHC (Encompass Health Corporation) · DVA (DaVita Inc.) · ENSG (The Ensign Group, Inc.)