Goosehead Insurance combines 23% revenue growth with a PEG ratio of 0.12 and free cash flow exceeding reported earnings by 87%, offering a deeply discounted growth franchise — but a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block on momentum signals the market is not yet ready to reward these fundamentals, calling for patience before deploying capital.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Price Overhang↓Deteriorating
- Growth At Deep Valuation Discount→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency distributing home, auto, and related coverage through 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate sales offices across the U.S. The company earns commissions and royalty fees through more than 200 carrier... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
About Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Goosehead Insurance placed $4.4 billion in Total Written Premium in 2025, up 17% from $3.8 billion in 2024, through 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate sales offices covering states representing over 97% of the U.S. population. The company distributes personal lines coverage through more than 200 insurance carriers, operates under state insurance licensing requirements across all U.S. markets, and reported an 85% client retention rate and a 10-year Total Written Premium CAGR of 39%.
Goosehead earns Core Revenue as New Business Commissions and Agency Fees — 100% retained for corporate sales and captured as a 20% royalty from franchise sales — plus Renewal Commissions (100% corporate, 50% franchise royalty), and Cost Recovery Revenue from non-refundable Initial Franchise Fees. The 2025 average new-business commission rate was 14% and the renewal rate 12%, with rates generally ranging from 10% to 20% depending on carrier, state, and line of business. Ancillary Revenue from Contingent Commissions, paid by carriers based on profitability, volume, and growth of placed business, supplements core commissions but is less predictable. The filing notes that the majority of new accounts are sourced through referral relationships tied to home purchase transactions, meaning housing market weakness — as seen in 2025 amid elevated interest rates — could weigh on new-account volume. Among the largest independent agency peers, the filing names Aon plc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Brown & Brown Inc., and Marsh & McLennan as competitors in the broader market.
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Goosehead's revenue is exposed to concentration risk at the carrier level: the 10-K discloses that a significant portion of commission revenues derives from a limited number of carriers, and the loss of any major carrier relationship would result in expense and market share loss. An additional structural dependency sits in the ownership structure: the failure of Mark Jones and Robyn Jones to maintain either a minimum voting interest or the ability to elect a majority of the board of directors could trigger a change-of-control default under the company's Credit Agreement, creating potential refinancing or acceleration risk for the company's debt obligations.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
From Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS CEO Shakeup Sends Goosehead Insurance Stock Sliding - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance earnings beat by $0.16, revenue topped estimates - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK positive
- NEWS GOOSEHEAD INSURANCE ($GSHD) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
Generated 2026-09-04T13:32:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartylimited number of Carriers10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our commission revenues from a limited number of Carriers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWJohn Martin appointed as Chief Financial Officer of Goosehead Insurance effective April 20, 2026. No prior CFO departure cited in this filing. No reason cited for appointment timing.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOWGoosehead filed 8-K/A detailing Separation Agreement with former General Counsel John O'Connor (departure effective March 29, 2026). O'Connor to provide consulting through September 30, 2026 with six months base salary and continued equity vesting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOWGeneral Counsel John O'Connor left Goosehead Insurance effective immediately on March 30, 2026; no reason cited. Martin Ellis Thornthwaite appointed as General Counsel effective immediately as successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $72.93 (+8.7%), stop $62.38 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $72.93 (-10.6% upside). Target $72.93 (+8.7%), stop $62.38 (−7.5%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $62.38.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 50.4 (forward 24.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
20 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $69.
What does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. do?Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency distributing home, auto, and related coverage...
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency distributing home, auto, and related coverage through 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate sales offices across the U.S. The company earns commissions and royalty fees through more than 200 carrier relationships; Total Written Premium grew 17% to $4.4 billion in 2025 with an 85% client retention rate.