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GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc.Sell5.3·$4.42+1.38%
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Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.42: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. operates as a non-operated oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It owns a portfolio of wells and acreage across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Denver-Julesburg (DJ), Appalachian basins, and other unconventional... Read more

$4.42+44.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#30 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-20.89%
IncomeYield9.95%Payout244.44%at-risk
Stop $4.20Target $6.38(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 6.2:1
Analyst target$7.50+69.7%4 analysts
$6.38our TP
$4.42price
$7.50mean
$11

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.42: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.1
Mkt Cap$583M
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn-7.5%
ROE-5.5%
Rev Growth5.0%
Beta0.18
Dividend9.95%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV109%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
1.6
Rule Of 40
3.0
Current Ratio
3.7
Moat
5.4
Piotroski F
8.9
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -28% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -23 (fail)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.4
Growth Rank
4.5
Value Rank
7.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 6.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.33Resistance $5.09

Price Targets

$4
$6
A.Upside+44.3%
A.R:R6.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GRNT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.42: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.20. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GRNT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.38 (+44.3% upside). Prior stop was $4.20. Stop-loss: $4.20.

What are the risks of investing in GRNT?

Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is GRNT overvalued or undervalued?

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GRNT?

11 analysts cover GRNT with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. do?Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. operates as a non-operated oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It...

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. operates as a non-operated oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It owns a portfolio of wells and acreage across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Denver-Julesburg (DJ), Appalachian basins, and other unconventional basins in the United States. The company is based in Dallas, Texas.

Related stocks: GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) · DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation) · BKV (BKV Corporation) · SD (SandRidge Energy, Inc.)
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