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GOOSCanada Goose Holdings Inc. SuboSell5.1·$9.59+0.42%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Canada Goose has delivered four consecutive earnings misses, trades above its resistance-based price target with a negative risk/reward ratio, and is in a confirmed long-term downtrend—a combination that offers no favorable entry geometry and places the stock below the minimum investable market-cap threshold.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Price Above Target Negative AsymmetryStable
  • Confirmed Long Term DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo (GOOS) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.59 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and... Read more

$9.59+6.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#9 of 14 Apparel Manufacturing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield20.68%
Stop $8.95Target $10.21(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$9.50-0.9%5 analysts
$10.21our TP
$9.59price
$9.50mean
$7
$13

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.59 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)59.9
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$932M
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE4.7%
Rev Growth17.9%
Beta1.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV59%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.16Resistance $10.42

Price Targets

$9
$10
A.Upside+6.5%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GOOS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $9.59 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $8.95. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GOOS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.21 (+6.5% upside). Prior stop was $8.95. Stop-loss: $8.95.

What are the risks of investing in GOOS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is GOOS overvalued or undervalued?

Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo trades at a P/E of 59.9 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GOOS?

15 analysts cover GOOS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo do?Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury...

Canada Goose Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Wholesale, and Other. The company offers leisure wear, including knitwear, sweats, and t-shirts; outerwear products, including rain and everyday collections, jackets for everyday occasions, fleece, and vests; footwear and accessories products, such as sneakers, boots, hats, scarves, gloves, hood trims, socks, bags and eyewear; and lightweight and heavyweight down jackets for the fall, winter, and spring seasons. It sells its products through e-commerce channels and directly operated retail stores. The company offers its products under Canada Goose, Snow Goose, and Baffin brands in Canada, the United States, North America, Greater China, rest of the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Canada Goose Holdings Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: KTB (Kontoor Brands, Inc.) · FIGS (FIGS, Inc.) · COLM (Columbia Sportswear Company) · VFC (V.F. Corporation) · PVH (PVH Corp.)
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