Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 3.75
GOOS · Why this verdict
Why Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subo (GOOS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Canada Goose has delivered four consecutive earnings misses, trades above its resistance-based price target with a negative risk/reward ratio, and is in a confirmed long-term downtrend—a combination that offers no favorable entry geometry and places the stock below the minimum investable market-cap threshold.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of approximately 18%, indicating a persistent and widening gap between expectations and actual delivery. Earnings | A reversal of the miss streak would require at least 2 consecutive quarters where actual EPS meets or exceeds consensus estimates. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFree cash flow is converting at 857% of net income, suggesting the earnings misses may reflect accounting charges or one-time items rather than a structural deterioration in the underlying cash-generating ability of the business. | ||
At current prices, the stock is already near its resistance-based take-profit level, leaving only about 1.2% of headroom to the target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.18—meaning the potential downside is roughly five times the available upside. Warnings | If wrong, the resistance level is revised higher as earnings recover, opening a more favorable risk/reward geometry for a subsequent entry. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, indicating some internal buying pressure that could push price beyond near-term resistance if sentiment shifts rapidly. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, which is itself declining at approximately 2.5% per 30 days—a confirmed downtrend where near-term price strength is likely to encounter persistent overhead supply before a genuine reversal can take hold. Momentum | Trend reversal would require the 200-day moving average to flatten and the stock to close above it for at least 10 consecutive trading days—a condition not yet in place. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe short-term MACD signal has improved and RSI sits at 61, suggesting the stock may be building enough near-term momentum to mount a challenge to the downtrend, even if the longer-term picture has not yet reversed. | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.18—where put options outnumber call options by more than three-to-one—reflects unusually heavy hedging or outright bearish positioning in the options market, amplifying downside risk if current price support erodes. Risk | A normalization of the put/call ratio toward 1.5 or below over the next three months would signal that options market participants have become meaningfully less bearish on the stock's near-term outlook. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put/call ratios can mark a sentiment extreme rather than an accurate directional forecast; if recent negative news is already fully discounted, the heavy put positioning could reverse quickly and become a contrarian tailwind. | ||
The company has missed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of approximately 18%, indicating a persistent and widening gap between expectations and actual delivery.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- A reversal of the miss streak would require at least 2 consecutive quarters where actual EPS meets or exceeds consensus estimates.
CounterFree cash flow is converting at 857% of net income, suggesting the earnings misses may reflect accounting charges or one-time items rather than a structural deterioration in the underlying cash-generating ability of the business.
At current prices, the stock is already near its resistance-based take-profit level, leaving only about 1.2% of headroom to the target and a risk/reward ratio of 0.18—meaning the potential downside is roughly five times the available upside.
Tripped→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If wrong, the resistance level is revised higher as earnings recover, opening a more favorable risk/reward geometry for a subsequent entry.
CounterMACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, indicating some internal buying pressure that could push price beyond near-term resistance if sentiment shifts rapidly.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, which is itself declining at approximately 2.5% per 30 days—a confirmed downtrend where near-term price strength is likely to encounter persistent overhead supply before a genuine reversal can take hold.
↑ImprovingMomentum
- Expectation
- Trend reversal would require the 200-day moving average to flatten and the stock to close above it for at least 10 consecutive trading days—a condition not yet in place.
CounterThe short-term MACD signal has improved and RSI sits at 61, suggesting the stock may be building enough near-term momentum to mount a challenge to the downtrend, even if the longer-term picture has not yet reversed.
A put/call ratio of 3.18—where put options outnumber call options by more than three-to-one—reflects unusually heavy hedging or outright bearish positioning in the options market, amplifying downside risk if current price support erodes.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- A normalization of the put/call ratio toward 1.5 or below over the next three months would signal that options market participants have become meaningfully less bearish on the stock's near-term outlook.
CounterExtreme put/call ratios can mark a sentiment extreme rather than an accurate directional forecast; if recent negative news is already fully discounted, the heavy put positioning could reverse quickly and become a contrarian tailwind.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 250% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 20 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.8 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Above max pain $4
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.09
Upside
-0.8%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.09 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.5, Value at 6.6, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.6, Catalyst at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS meets or exceeds consensus estimates for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price Above Target Negative AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifStock price falls below $9.50, restoring more than 7% upside to the $10.21 resistance target.
- P3Confirmed Long Term Downtrend
Trip if200-day moving average flattens and stock closes above it for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P4Extreme Options Market Skepticism
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.5 for 4 consecutive weeks.