Graco's best-in-class operating margins and high-quality financial profile provide a durable fundamental anchor, but a confirmed technical downtrend with the stock below its 200-day moving average, three earnings misses in four quarters, and an unusually elevated put/call ratio call for patience while waiting for technical confirmation that the emerging recovery signals are genuine.
Thesis pillars
- Best In Class Margins And Quality→Stable
- Recovery Signals In Confirmed Downtrend→Stable
- Elevated Options Protective Hedging→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. At $75.24, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers.
Graco manufactures fluid and coating management systems across three segments — Contractor (48%), Industrial (45%), and Expansion Markets (7%) of 2025 sales — selling primarily through third-party distributors in the Americas (60% of sales), EMEA (24%), and Asia Pacific (16%).... Read more
Sell if holding. At $75.24, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Graco Inc.
About Graco Inc.
Graco's Contractor segment accounted for approximately 48% of total 2025 sales, followed by Industrial at 45% and Expansion Markets at 7%, with the Americas generating roughly 60% of company-wide revenue, EMEA 24%, and Asia Pacific 16%. The company employs approximately 4,400 people, with none of its U.S. workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, and completed two acquisitions in 2025 adding mixing, shaking, and automated dosing capabilities. Product development spending totaled $82 million in fiscal 2025, averaging roughly 4% of sales over the prior three years.
Graco earns revenue primarily through third-party distributor networks across all segments, with Contractor products sold through paint and coatings distributors and home center channels, Industrial products through specialized distributors, integrators, and OEMs, and Expansion Markets through direct and specialty channels. The Contractor segment serves professional painters and specialty contractors for construction and maintenance, making it sensitive to residential and commercial building cycles. A majority of Industrial segment business is outside North America, with end markets spanning automotive, aerospace, rail, marine, and industrial processing. The Powder division supplies powder coating systems under the Gema, SAT, and ColorService brands. Graco manufactures most products in the United States, supplemented by facilities in Switzerland, Italy, China, India, Belgium, and Romania. Principal raw materials — steel alloys, stainless steel, aluminum, tungsten carbide, and electronic components — are generally available from multiple sources, though certain components are sourced from single suppliers.
Show full overview
The Contractor segment's dependence on a few large channel partners exposes the company to volume risk if construction and remodeling activity slows. The 10-K notes that the Contractor segment depends on a few large customers for a significant portion of its sales, and that a substantial decrease in purchases by these customers would adversely affect the profitability of the segment. This cyclical exposure is reinforced by Graco's direct link to residential, commercial, and institutional construction activity, where downturns could reduce demand across the Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets segments simultaneously.
See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
From Graco Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Graco Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Graco Inc. (GGG) Misses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Graco (NYSE:GGG) Misses Q1 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Graco (NYSE:GGG) Misses Q1 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops - FinancialContent — FinancialContent negative
- NEWS Graco (NYSE:GGG) Issues Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.08 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Graco shares slide after quarterly misses, underlying weakness (GGG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicAmericas60%10-K Item 1: 'sales in the Americas represented approximately 60 percent of our Company's total sales'
- MEDIUMCustomerfew large customers10-K Item 1A: 'Our Contractor segment depends on a few large customers for a significant portion of its sales.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'some of them are sourced from single suppliers, which has limited, and could continue to limit, their availability'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $75.24, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $72.42. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.04 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $72.42. Stop-loss: $72.42.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers; Thin upside margin: 6.4%.
Graco Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover GGG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.
What does Graco Inc. do?Graco manufactures fluid and coating management systems across three segments — Contractor (48%), Industrial (45%), and...
Graco manufactures fluid and coating management systems across three segments — Contractor (48%), Industrial (45%), and Expansion Markets (7%) of 2025 sales — selling primarily through third-party distributors in the Americas (60% of sales), EMEA (24%), and Asia Pacific (16%). The company employs approximately 4,400 people, with no U.S. workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, and invested $82 million in product development in fiscal 2025.