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GGGGraco Inc.Sell5.0·$75.67+1.43%
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Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. At $75.67, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%).

Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in industrial, construction, automotive, and process markets. It earns revenue through proprietary equipment sales and aftermarket parts in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia... Read more

$75.67+5.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#38 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.18%
IncomeYield1.58%(5y avg 1.19%)Payout36.60%sustainable
Stop $72.89Target $80.04(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$92.00+21.6%8 analysts
$80.04our TP
$75.67price
$92.00mean
$100

Sell if holding. At $75.67, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Graco Inc.

About Graco Inc.

Graco's Contractor segment accounted for approximately 48% of total 2025 sales, followed by Industrial at 45% and Expansion Markets at 7%, with the Americas generating roughly 60% of company-wide revenue, EMEA 24%, and Asia Pacific 16%. The company employs approximately 4,400 people, with none of its U.S. workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, and completed two acquisitions in 2025 adding mixing, shaking, and automated dosing capabilities. Product development spending totaled $82 million in fiscal 2025, averaging roughly 4% of sales over the prior three years.

Graco earns revenue primarily through third-party distributor networks across all segments, with Contractor products sold through paint and coatings distributors and home center channels, Industrial products through specialized distributors, integrators, and OEMs, and Expansion Markets through direct and specialty channels. The Contractor segment serves professional painters and specialty contractors for construction and maintenance, making it sensitive to residential and commercial building cycles. A majority of Industrial segment business is outside North America, with end markets spanning automotive, aerospace, rail, marine, and industrial processing. The Powder division supplies powder coating systems under the Gema, SAT, and ColorService brands. Graco manufactures most products in the United States, supplemented by facilities in Switzerland, Italy, China, India, Belgium, and Romania. Principal raw materials — steel alloys, stainless steel, aluminum, tungsten carbide, and electronic components — are generally available from multiple sources, though certain components are sourced from single suppliers.

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The Contractor segment's dependence on a few large channel partners exposes the company to volume risk if construction and remodeling activity slows. The 10-K notes that the Contractor segment depends on a few large customers for a significant portion of its sales, and that a substantial decrease in purchases by these customers would adversely affect the profitability of the segment. This cyclical exposure is reinforced by Graco's direct link to residential, commercial, and institutional construction activity, where downturns could reduce demand across the Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets segments simultaneously.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Graco Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%)
Thin upside margin: 5.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)22.1
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA16.3
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE19.8%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.93
Dividend1.58%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.83bearish
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$90+18.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAmericas sales60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales in the Americas represented approximately 60 percent of our Company's total sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Graco announced the retirement of CFO Mark W. Lowe and the appointment of Anuj Gupta as Senior Vice President and CFO, effective March 2, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Graco director Jack W. Carter submitted his resignation from the Board of Directors, effective February 13, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.4
Revenue Growth
3.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 158.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $73.26Resistance $77.27

Price Targets

$73
$80
A.Upside+5.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $75.67, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Prior stop was $72.89. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the GGG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.04 (+5.8% upside). Prior stop was $72.89. Stop-loss: $72.89.

What are the risks of investing in GGG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.

Is GGG overvalued or undervalued?

Graco Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GGG?

16 analysts cover GGG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Graco Inc. do?Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in...

Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in industrial, construction, automotive, and process markets. It earns revenue through proprietary equipment sales and aftermarket parts in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific regions.

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