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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Graco's best-in-class operating margins and high-quality financial profile provide a durable fundamental anchor, but a confirmed technical downtrend with the stock below its 200-day moving average, three earnings misses in four quarters, and an unusually elevated put/call ratio call for patience while waiting for technical confirmation that the emerging recovery signals are genuine.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Margins And Quality→Stable
  • Recovery Signals In Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
  • Elevated Options Protective Hedging↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. At $69.16, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers.

Graco manufactures fluid and coating management systems across three segments — Contractor (48%), Industrial (45%), and Expansion Markets (7%) of 2025 sales — selling primarily through third-party distributors in the Americas (60% of sales), EMEA (24%), and Asia Pacific (16%).... Read more

$69.16+4.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#39 of 56 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.87%
IncomeYield1.71%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout37.42%sustainable
Stop $64.32Analyst target $72.46(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst consensus$83.29+20.4%7 analysts with price targets
$72.46Analyst target
$69.16price
$83.29mean
$100

Sell if holding. At $69.16, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Graco Inc.

About Graco Inc.

Graco's Contractor segment accounted for approximately 48% of total 2025 sales, followed by Industrial at 45% and Expansion Markets at 7%, with the Americas generating roughly 60% of company-wide revenue, EMEA 24%, and Asia Pacific 16%. The company employs approximately 4,400 people, with none of its U.S. workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, and completed two acquisitions in 2025 adding mixing, shaking, and automated dosing capabilities. Product development spending totaled $82 million in fiscal 2025, averaging roughly 4% of sales over the prior three years.

Graco earns revenue primarily through third-party distributor networks across all segments, with Contractor products sold through paint and coatings distributors and home center channels, Industrial products through specialized distributors, integrators, and OEMs, and Expansion Markets through direct and specialty channels. The Contractor segment serves professional painters and specialty contractors for construction and maintenance, making it sensitive to residential and commercial building cycles. A majority of Industrial segment business is outside North America, with end markets spanning automotive, aerospace, rail, marine, and industrial processing. The Powder division supplies powder coating systems under the Gema, SAT, and ColorService brands. Graco manufactures most products in the United States, supplemented by facilities in Switzerland, Italy, China, India, Belgium, and Romania. Principal raw materials — steel alloys, stainless steel, aluminum, tungsten carbide, and electronic components — are generally available from multiple sources, though certain components are sourced from single suppliers.

Show full overview

The Contractor segment's dependence on a few large channel partners exposes the company to volume risk if construction and remodeling activity slows. The 10-K notes that the Contractor segment depends on a few large customers for a significant portion of its sales, and that a substantial decrease in purchases by these customers would adversely affect the profitability of the segment. This cyclical exposure is reinforced by Graco's direct link to residential, commercial, and institutional construction activity, where downturns could reduce demand across the Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets segments simultaneously.

See also: Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

From Graco Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 21, 2026

Recent Developments — Graco Inc.

Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:38Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jan 27, 202784d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers
Thin upside margin: 4.8%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)20.0
Mkt Cap$11.1B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE20.4%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta0.89
Dividend1.71%
Analysts with ratings15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C9.58bearish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAmericas60%
    10-K Item 1: 'sales in the Americas represented approximately 60 percent of our Company's total sales'
  • MEDIUMCustomerfew large customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Contractor segment depends on a few large customers for a significant portion of its sales.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'some of them are sourced from single suppliers, which has limited, and could continue to limit, their availability'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.3
Revenue Growth
4.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $65.96Resistance $82.67

Price Targets

$64
$72
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-27 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $69.16, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $64.32. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GGG stock price target?

Analyst target: $72.46 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $64.32. Stop-loss: $64.32.

What are the risks of investing in GGG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas (60.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single suppliers; Thin upside margin: 4.8%.

Is GGG overvalued or undervalued?

Graco Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GGG?

15 analysts rate GGG, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 7 analysts publish price targets averaging $83.

What does Graco Inc. do?Graco manufactures fluid and coating management systems across three segments — Contractor (48%), Industrial (45%), and...

Graco manufactures fluid and coating management systems across three segments — Contractor (48%), Industrial (45%), and Expansion Markets (7%) of 2025 sales — selling primarily through third-party distributors in the Americas (60% of sales), EMEA (24%), and Asia Pacific (16%). The company employs approximately 4,400 people, with no U.S. workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, and invested $82 million in product development in fiscal 2025.

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