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Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. At $76.17, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%).

Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in industrial, construction, automotive, and process markets. It earns revenue through proprietary equipment sales and aftermarket parts in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia... Read more

$76.17+5.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#39 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.09%
IncomeYield1.55%(5y avg 1.18%)Payout36.60%sustainable
Stop $73.31Target $80.04(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$92.00+20.8%8 analysts
$80.04our TP
$76.17price
$92.00mean
$100

Sell if holding. At $76.17, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Graco Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%)
Thin upside margin: 5.1%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.9
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$12.6B
EV/EBITDA16.6
Profit Mgn23.0%
ROE19.8%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.96
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.20bearish
IV31%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicAmericas sales60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales in the Americas represented approximately 60 percent of our Company's total sales'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Graco announced the retirement of CFO Mark W. Lowe and the appointment of Anuj Gupta as Senior Vice President and CFO, effective March 2, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Graco director Jack W. Carter submitted his resignation from the Board of Directors, effective February 13, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.4
Revenue Growth
3.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 155.0%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $75.58Resistance $87.99

Price Targets

$73
$80
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $76.17, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $73.31. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the GGG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.04 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $73.31. Stop-loss: $73.31.

What are the risks of investing in GGG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Americas sales (60.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is GGG overvalued or undervalued?

Graco Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.9 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GGG?

16 analysts cover GGG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Graco Inc. do?Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in...

Graco is a global manufacturer of fluid handling equipment — pumps, meters, valves, and spray equipment — used in industrial, construction, automotive, and process markets. It earns revenue through proprietary equipment sales and aftermarket parts in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific regions.

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