Graco Inc. (GGG) Stock Analysis
Temp Headwind edge
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $79.97 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0.
Graco Inc. is a Minnesota multi-national manufacturer of fluid and coating management equipment, organized into Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets segments, with Americas representing ~60% of 2025 sales. Products are sold through third-party distributors to... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $79.97 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerContractor segment large channel partners10-K Item 1A: 'Our Contractor segment, which is our largest reporting segment by sales, derives a significant amount of revenue from a few large channel partners.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-02Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO David M. Lowe notified Graco on Feb 27, 2026 of intention to retire; will remain in non-executive capacity through May 2026. Sanjiv Gupta (currently VP & CFO, GM International at General Motors) appointed CFO effective April 15, 2026. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOWBrett C. Carter resigned from Graco Board effective February 13, 2026 to pursue other commitments. Not due to disagreement with Board or management. No successor named for board seat.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $79.97 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $76.71. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.04 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $76.71. Stop-loss: $76.71.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Graco Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.0 (forward 23.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover GGG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $92.
What does Graco Inc. do?Graco Inc. is a Minnesota multi-national manufacturer of fluid and coating management equipment, organized into...
Graco Inc. is a Minnesota multi-national manufacturer of fluid and coating management equipment, organized into Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets segments, with Americas representing ~60% of 2025 sales. Products are sold through third-party distributors to manufacturing, construction, and maintenance industries worldwide.