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GFIGold Fields LimitedBuy Wait6.9·$40.24+1.80%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Gold Fields is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 71% year-over-year growth, and an attractive forward valuation near 7 times earnings, though an extreme put/call ratio and a pullback below the 200-day moving average suggest elevated near-term uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • Attractive Forward ValuationDeteriorating
  • High Quality Wide Moat FranchiseStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $32.74. At $40.24 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $32.74 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

$40.24+4.5% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#13 of 40 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.20%
IncomeYield5.70%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout20.00%sustainable
Entry $32.74(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $29.28Target $42.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$48.34+20.1%8 analysts
$42.05our TP
$40.24price
$48.34mean
$57

Wait for pullback to $32.74. At $40.24 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $32.74 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Value play: 33% MoS with quality 8.6. | Poor entry (EQ=3.8): wait for pullback. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15

Recent Developments — Gold Fields Limited

Generated 2026-08-15T11:27:12Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 25, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.5%
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Entry quality score: 3.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$35.4B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn40.8%
ROE51.9%
Rev Growth71.4%
Beta0.60
Dividend5.70%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.8
Support Resistance
1.9
52w Position
3.6
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.11Resistance $42.43

Price Targets

$29
$33
$42
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-25 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $32.74. At $40.24 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $32.74 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Value play: 33% MoS with quality 8.6. | Poor entry (EQ=3.8): wait for pullback. Target $42.05 (+4.5%), stop $29.28 (−37.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.05 (+4.5% upside). Target $42.05 (+4.5%), stop $29.28 (−37.4%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $29.28.

What are the risks of investing in GFI?

Thin upside margin: 4.5%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Entry quality score: 3.8/10.

Is GFI overvalued or undervalued?

Gold Fields Limited trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GFI?

14 analysts cover GFI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Gold Fields Limited do?Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru,...

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation)
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