Geo Group has delivered strong earnings beats and positive momentum, but the stock now trades above its analyst price target with a negative risk/reward ratio and an overbought RSI of 91 — the operational delivery has been solid, yet the current price leaves no margin of safety and the setup favors patience over new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Earnings Beat Track Record↓Deteriorating
- Price Above Analyst Target↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).
GEO Group specializes in ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, and South Africa across four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Geo Group Inc (The) REIT
About Geo Group Inc (The) REIT
GEO Group's 95 secure and community-based facilities held approximately 75,000 beds as of December 31, 2025, spanning the United States, Australia, and South Africa across four segments. Eight idle facilities in the Secure and Reentry Services segments carried a combined annual carrying cost of $23.4 million in 2026. The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act appropriated $45 billion for ICE single-adult detention and family residential center capacity through September 30, 2029.
GEO Group generates revenue primarily through per-diem government contracts for bed-days and service delivery. The U.S. Secure Services segment manages immigration processing centers and correctional facilities under contracts with ICE, the U.S. Marshals Service, and state corrections departments. The Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment operates the Intensive Supervision and Appearance Program under a two-year ICE contract effective October 1, 2025. International Services covers Australia and South Africa, including the Ravenhall facility backed by approximately AUD 53 million in outstanding letters of credit. In 2025, GEO Group activated idled capacity at the D. Ray James, North Lake, Delaney Hall, Karnes, and Adelanto facilities under new or modified ICE contracts, while the sale of the 2,388-bed Lawton Correctional Facility for $312 million closed on July 25, 2025.
Show full overview
GEO Group's revenue is structurally tied to federal immigration and detention policy. The 10-K discloses that future administrations could issue executive orders restricting DOJ-affiliated agencies from renewing private contracts, as occurred under a January 2021 order that was reversed on January 20, 2025. State-level restrictions further compound policy exposure: California, Colorado, and New Jersey enacted laws prohibiting state and local agencies from contracting to detain immigrants in ICE custody, though federal courts struck down the restrictions on direct ICE-to-private-company contracts. Total consolidated indebtedness stood at approximately $1.7 billion as of December 31, 2025, including $358.6 million on a floating-rate revolver.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Geo Group Inc (The) REIT
Latest news
- NEWS GEO stock up on new Immigration and Customs Enforcement contract (GEO:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS The GEO Group Announces Contract for Company-Owned 1,320-Bed Rivers Facility in North Carolina - The GEO Group — The GEO Group positive
- NEWS GEO|Geo Group Inc|Price:30.409|Chg%:+0.459 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Democrats send letter to Geo Group over meetings with DHS's Lewandowski - report - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Geo Group (GEO) Expected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T10:44:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'The loss of, or a significant decrease in revenues from, our limited number of customers could seriously harm our financial condition and results of operations.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $32.09 (+2.8%), stop $29.03 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.09 (+2.8% upside). Target $32.09 (+2.8%), stop $29.03 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $29.03.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
7 analysts cover GEO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $38.
What does Geo Group Inc (The) REIT do?GEO Group specializes in ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry...
GEO Group specializes in ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, and South Africa across four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. Revenue comes from per-diem government contracts, operating approximately 75,000 beds at 95 secure and community-based facilities as of December 31, 2025.