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Allegion plc (ALLE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $126.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Allegion is a global provider of security products including locks, access control systems, and door hardware sold under brands such as Schlage, CISA, and Von Duprin, generating $4,067.3M in net revenues in 2025. Products are sold through distribution and retail channels to... Read more

$126.11+14.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.56%
IncomeYield1.68%(5y avg 1.37%)Payout28.42%sustainable
Stop $121.25Target $144.35(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$165.92+31.6%12 analysts
$144.35our TP
$126.11price
$165.92mean
$189

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $126.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Allegion plc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-1.00) on quality business
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$10.8B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE34.2%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.90
Dividend1.68%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.90bearish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers26%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our 10 largest customers represented approximately 26% of our total Net revenues in 2025. No single customer represented 10% or more of our total Net revenues in 2025.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierMexico sourcing
    10-K Item 1A: 'We estimate we source approximately 20-25% of Cost of goods sold from Mexico and less than 5% of Cost of goods sold from China.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $125.00Resistance $149.26

Price Targets

$121
$144
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALLE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $126.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $121.25. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALLE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $144.35 (+14.6% upside). Prior stop was $121.25. Stop-loss: $121.25.

What are the risks of investing in ALLE?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ALLE overvalued or undervalued?

Allegion plc trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALLE?

20 analysts cover ALLE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $166.

What does Allegion plc do?Allegion is a global provider of security products including locks, access control systems, and door hardware sold...

Allegion is a global provider of security products including locks, access control systems, and door hardware sold under brands such as Schlage, CISA, and Von Duprin, generating $4,067.3M in net revenues in 2025. Products are sold through distribution and retail channels to commercial, institutional, and residential customers worldwide.

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