Allegion plc (ALLE) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. At $137.07, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Allegion is a global provider of security products and solutions including door controls, electronic locks, access control systems, and locksets sold under brands like Schlage, CISA, Von Duprin, and SimonsVoss across residential, commercial, and institutional markets.... Read more
Sell if holding. At $137.07, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicMexico sourcing10-K Item 1A: 'We estimate we source approximately 20-25% of Cost of goods sold from Mexico and less than 5% of Cost of goods sold from China.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $137.07, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $131.25. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $145.80 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $131.25. Stop-loss: $131.25.
Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Allegion plc trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover ALLE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $168.
What does Allegion plc do?Allegion is a global provider of security products and solutions including door controls, electronic locks, access...
Allegion is a global provider of security products and solutions including door controls, electronic locks, access control systems, and locksets sold under brands like Schlage, CISA, Von Duprin, and SimonsVoss across residential, commercial, and institutional markets. Approximately 25% of 2025 net revenues were derived outside the U.S.; the company sources approximately 20-25% of COGS from Mexico.