Skip to main content

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. At $22.81, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

The GEO Group is the largest private operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the UK. It earns per-diem government contract revenues for housing federal, state, and local inmates and detainees, as... Read more

$22.81+9.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.82%
Stop $21.21Target $25.07(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$29.50+29.3%4 analysts
$25.07our TP
$22.81price
$29.50mean
$33

Sell if holding. At $22.81, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Geo Group Inc (The) REIT

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE19.3%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta0.81
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.2
Bollinger
1.9
52w Position
4.2
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotNEWS LEGALMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.24Resistance $23.43

Price Targets

$21
$25
A.Upside+9.9%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! NEWS:LEGAL

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $22.81, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.21. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GEO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.07 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $21.21. Stop-loss: $21.21.

What are the risks of investing in GEO?

Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is GEO overvalued or undervalued?

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEO?

8 analysts cover GEO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Geo Group Inc (The) REIT do?The GEO Group is the largest private operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the...

The GEO Group is the largest private operator of correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the UK. It earns per-diem government contract revenues for housing federal, state, and local inmates and detainees, as well as rehabilitative programming services.

Related stocks: CXW (CoreCivic, Inc.) · BCO (Brinks Company (The)) · MSA (MSA Safety Incorporated) · BRC (Brady Corporation) · ADT (ADT Inc.)