Geo Group has delivered strong earnings beats and positive momentum, but the stock now trades above its analyst price target with a negative risk/reward ratio and an overbought RSI of 91 — the operational delivery has been solid, yet the current price leaves no margin of safety and the setup favors patience over new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Earnings Beat Track Record↑Improving
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.53: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
GEO Group specializes in ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, and South Africa across four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.53: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Geo Group Inc (The) REIT
About Geo Group Inc (The) REIT
GEO Group's 95 secure and community-based facilities held approximately 75,000 beds as of December 31, 2025, spanning the United States, Australia, and South Africa across four segments. Eight idle facilities in the Secure and Reentry Services segments carried a combined annual carrying cost of $23.4 million in 2026. The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act appropriated $45 billion for ICE single-adult detention and family residential center capacity through September 30, 2029.
GEO Group generates revenue primarily through per-diem government contracts for bed-days and service delivery. The U.S. Secure Services segment manages immigration processing centers and correctional facilities under contracts with ICE, the U.S. Marshals Service, and state corrections departments. The Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment operates the Intensive Supervision and Appearance Program under a two-year ICE contract effective October 1, 2025. International Services covers Australia and South Africa, including the Ravenhall facility backed by approximately AUD 53 million in outstanding letters of credit. In 2025, GEO Group activated idled capacity at the D. Ray James, North Lake, Delaney Hall, Karnes, and Adelanto facilities under new or modified ICE contracts, while the sale of the 2,388-bed Lawton Correctional Facility for $312 million closed on July 25, 2025.
Show full overview
GEO Group's revenue is structurally tied to federal immigration and detention policy. The 10-K discloses that future administrations could issue executive orders restricting DOJ-affiliated agencies from renewing private contracts, as occurred under a January 2021 order that was reversed on January 20, 2025. State-level restrictions further compound policy exposure: California, Colorado, and New Jersey enacted laws prohibiting state and local agencies from contracting to detain immigrants in ICE custody, though federal courts struck down the restrictions on direct ICE-to-private-company contracts. Total consolidated indebtedness stood at approximately $1.7 billion as of December 31, 2025, including $358.6 million on a floating-rate revolver.
See also: Industrials · Security & Protection Services
From Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Geo Group Inc (The) REIT
Latest news
- NEWS GEO Group Q3 Adj EPS $0.39 Beats $0.35 Estimate; Sales $761.06M Miss $783.08M Estimate — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS How Investors May Respond To GEO Group (GEO) 10 Year ICE Contract - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS GEO Group (GEO) Could Be 25% Undervalued As Debt Falls And Buyback Room Grows - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Should GEO Group’s Buyback and New ICE Contract Shift the Earnings Outlook for GEO (GEO) Investors? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Stock Market Today: Stocks Retreat Ahead Of CPI Data; GEO Group, Taiwan Semi, nVent Electric In Focus - Investor's Busin — Investor's Business Daily Aug 11, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'The loss of, or a significant decrease in revenues from, our limited number of customers could seriously harm our financial condition and results of operations.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $27.53: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $25.60. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $33.15 (+20.4% upside). Prior stop was $25.60. Stop-loss: $25.60.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts rate GEO, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $39.
What does Geo Group Inc (The) REIT do?GEO Group specializes in ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry...
GEO Group specializes in ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, and South Africa across four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. Revenue comes from per-diem government contracts, operating approximately 75,000 beds at 95 secure and community-based facilities as of December 31, 2025.