Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: government; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
GEO Group specializes in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities in the U.S., Australia, and South Africa, with approximately 75,000 beds at 95 facilities. Revenue is generated from government contracts with... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: government; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomergovernment10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on government appropriations'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02HIGHCEO J. David Donahue notified GEO of retirement effective February 28, 2026. Separation Agreement and Consultant Agreement signed; Donahue to serve as consultant at $104,167/month through February 2028. No successor CEO named.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-05Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Mark J. Suchinski notified GEO of departure effective March 31, 2026 to accept a position in another industry. Shayn March, EVP Finance and Treasurer, appointed SVP and CFO effective April 1, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.62, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: government; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $25.07 (+34.6%), stop $17.45 (−6.7%), A.R:R 4.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $25.07 (+34.7% upside). Target $25.07 (+34.6%), stop $17.45 (−6.7%), A.R:R 4.2:1. Stop-loss: $17.45.
Concentration risk — Customer: government; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover GEO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $30.
What does Geo Group Inc (The) REIT do?GEO Group specializes in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry...
GEO Group specializes in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry facilities in the U.S., Australia, and South Africa, with approximately 75,000 beds at 95 facilities. Revenue is generated from government contracts with agencies including ICE, BOP, and USMS, subject to annual government appropriations.