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MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedHold6.2·$174.06
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MSA Safety has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats, a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, and strong 15% operating margins, but a confirmed death cross price pattern with RSI at 32 and a flat 200-day moving average presents a significant near-term technical headwind that warrants patience before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Quality↑Improving
  • High Quality Industrial Business↓Deteriorating
  • Death Cross Rsi 32↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $174.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE categories through Americas and International segments, employing approximately 5,300 people as of December 31, 2025. Products are sold through more than 1,800... Read more

$174.06+4.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 11 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.25%
IncomeYield1.24%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout26.49%sustainable
Stop $165.51Analyst target $181.11(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst consensus$208.17+19.6%6 analysts with price targets
$181.11Analyst target
$174.06price
$208.17mean
$223

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $174.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 99d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 29, 2026

Recent Developments — MSA Safety Incorporated

Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:31Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Feb 11, 202799d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.6 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.0%
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.2
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA14.5
Profit Mgn15.0%
ROE22.1%
Rev Growth14.5%
Beta0.91
Dividend1.24%
Analysts with ratings12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Vol Acceleration
2.3
Rsi
4.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weaknessVolume surge (2.7x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 99d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $170.63Resistance $187.15

Price Targets

$166
$181
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-11 (99d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $174.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $181.11 (+4.0%), stop $165.51 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSA stock price target?

Analyst target: $181.11 (+4.0% upside). Analyst target $181.11 (+4.0%), stop $165.51 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $165.51.

What are the risks of investing in MSA?

Thin upside margin: 4.0%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is MSA overvalued or undervalued?

MSA Safety Incorporated trades at a P/E of 23.2 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MSA?

12 analysts rate MSA, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $208.

What does MSA Safety Incorporated do?MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE...

MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE categories through Americas and International segments, employing approximately 5,300 people as of December 31, 2025. Products are sold through more than 1,800 authorized distributor locations worldwide, with no individual customer exceeding 10% of annual sales.

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