NAPCO Security Technologies has achieved a perfect earnings beat streak of 4 consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 22%, a wide economic moat, and free cash flow at 131% of net income, establishing it as a high-quality compounder in the security technology space with meaningful analyst upside remaining.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Quality Compounder↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Upside 34pct→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 24, 2026· older than 90 days
NAPCO Security Technologies, In (NSSC) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. Its access control systems include... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — NAPCO Security Technologies, In
Latest news
- NEWS Why Napco Security Technologies Stock Missed Estimates On Weak Equipment Sales - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS What Does Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) Earnings Miss Mean For Its Dividend? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS NAPCO Security Technologies Q1 Earnings Call Highlights - TradingView — TradingView Nov 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NSSC) NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $0.34 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.38 — www.marketscreener.com Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC ($NSSC) CEO 2026 Pay Revealed - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $31.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $30.07. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $38.57 (+21.5% upside). Prior stop was $30.07. Stop-loss: $30.07.
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
NAPCO Security Technologies, In trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate NSSC, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $44.
What does NAPCO Security Technologies, In do?Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems...
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. Its access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; intrusion and fire alarm systems, consists of various detectors, a control panel, a digital keypad and signaling equipment; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. The company's alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. It also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and various peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. The company markets and sells its products to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.