NAPCO Security Technologies has achieved a perfect earnings beat streak of 4 consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 22%, a wide economic moat, and free cash flow at 131% of net income, establishing it as a high-quality compounder in the security technology space with meaningful analyst upside remaining.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat High Quality Compounder→Stable
- Analyst Upside 34pct→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NAPCO Security Technologies, In (NSSC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Temporary headwind edge
Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Wait for pullback to $34.90. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern, below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $35.96. Engine's entry $34.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. Its access control systems include... Read more
Wait for pullback to $34.90. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern, below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $35.96. Engine's entry $34.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.37, quality 8.9/10, growth 7.5/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — NAPCO Security Technologies, In
Latest news
- NEWS Did NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders? - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Did NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders? - tradingview.com — tradingview.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Preview: NSSC to Report Financial Results Pre-market on May 04 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS NAPCO Security Technologies to Announce Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Results Monday, May 4, 2026 - Weekly Voice — Weekly Voice neutral
- NEWS Is Napco (NSSC) a Solid Growth Stock? 3 Reasons to Think "Yes" - qz.com — qz.com positive
Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $34.90. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern, below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $35.96. Engine's entry $34.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.37, quality 8.9/10, growth 7.5/10). Target $44.08 (+22.6%), stop $33.48 (−7.4%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $44.08 (+22.6% upside). Target $44.08 (+22.6%), stop $33.48 (−7.4%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $33.48.
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
NAPCO Security Technologies, In trades at a P/E of 30.2 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
12 analysts cover NSSC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $51.
What does NAPCO Security Technologies, In do?Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems...
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. Its access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; intrusion and fire alarm systems, consists of various detectors, a control panel, a digital keypad and signaling equipment; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. The company's alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. It also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and various peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. The company markets and sells its products to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.