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NAPCO Security Technologies, In (NSSC) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $36.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. The company's access control... Read more

$36.08+21.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#7 of 8 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.74%
IncomeYield1.66%Payout55.34%sustainable
Stop $34.66Target $43.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$50.33+39.5%6 analysts
$43.79our TP
$36.08price
$50.33mean
$53

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $36.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 96d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — NAPCO Security Technologies, In

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.6 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.0
P/E (Fwd)22.3
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA21.8
Profit Mgn18.7%
ROE21.7%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta1.54
Dividend1.66%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$23-37.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
6.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
6.9
Best-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 96d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.73Resistance $47.20

Price Targets

$35
$44
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-24 (96d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NSSC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $36.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 23, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $34.66. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NSSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.79 (+21.4% upside). Prior stop was $34.66. Stop-loss: $34.66.

What are the risks of investing in NSSC?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is NSSC overvalued or undervalued?

NAPCO Security Technologies, In trades at a P/E of 35.0 (forward 22.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NSSC?

12 analysts cover NSSC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NAPCO Security Technologies, In do?Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems...

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. The company's access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; intrusion and fire alarm systems, consists of various detectors, a control panel, a digital keypad and signaling equipment; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. Its alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. The company also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and various peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. It markets and sells its products to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.

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