NAPCO Security Technologies, In (NSSC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the NSSC stock price target?

Entry $40.25, take-profit $45.52 (+13.1% upside). Target $45.52 (-1.3%), stop $37.91 (−21.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

$46.12+13.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 8 Security & Protection Services

Entry $40.25(200-day MA)Stop $37.91Target $45.52(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1

Analyst target$49.67+7.7%6 analysts

$45.52our TP

$46.12price

$49.67mean

$52

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $46.12 has reached target $45.52. No upside to wait for. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (4.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.2

P/E (Fwd)28.1

Mkt Cap$1.6B

EV/EBITDA29.1

Profit Mgn24.7%

ROE26.4%

Rev Growth7.6%

Beta1.48

Dividend1.33%

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.83bearish

IV74%elevated

Max Pain$23-51.2% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
99.1 | | [Press Release issued by Napco Security Technologies, Inc. dated February 2, 2026.](https://www.sec [... truncated]
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.015%0.60

Quality7.715%1.16

Growth5.315%0.79

Momentum4.710%0.47

Sentiment6.410%0.64

Insider Activity3.010%0.30

Peer Rank3.810%0.38

Technical Setup4.05%0.20

Risk Profile4.35%0.21

Catalyst8.05%0.40

Overall (Σ contributions)5.16

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

0.0

Growth Rank

2.5

Quality Rank

7.5

Best-in-class margins

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

73 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.25Resistance $46.45

Price Targets

$38

$40

$46

A.Upside-1.3%

A.R:R-0.4:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NSSC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $46.12 has reached target $45.52. No upside to wait for. Target $45.52 (-1.3%), stop $37.91 (−21.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NSSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.52 (+13.1% upside). Target $45.52 (-1.3%), stop $37.91 (−21.7%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $37.91.

What are the risks of investing in NSSC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

Is NSSC overvalued or undervalued?

NAPCO Security Technologies, In trades at a P/E of 34.2 (forward 28.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NSSC?

12 analysts cover NSSC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NAPCO Security Technologies, In do?Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems...

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of electronic security systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications in the United States and internationally. The company's access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; intrusion and fire alarm systems, consists of various detectors, a control panel, a digital keypad and signaling equipment; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. Its alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. The company also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and various peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. It markets and sells its products to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.