Ferguson has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a roughly 24% outperformance two quarters ago — and offers roughly 8.7% upside to its analyst-derived take-profit target at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67-to-1; however, quality metrics are below average with no identifiable competitive moat, roughly 95% of revenue is concentrated in a single geography, and the stock has recently dipped below its 200-day moving average in what technicals characterize as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit No Competitive Moat→Stable
- Us Geographic Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%).
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ferguson Intends To Cancel Secondary Listing On London Stock Exchange, Effective July 20 — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ferguson Enterprises, Raises Price Target to $297 — benzinga May 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Ferguson Enterprises, Raises Price Target to $281 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ferguson Enterprises, Raises Price Target to $285 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Weak US Housing Demand Hits Ferguson's Revenue Growth — benzinga May 5, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $216.18. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $256.11 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $216.18. Stop-loss: $216.18.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $285.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada,...
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split roughly two-thirds from repair/maintenance/improvement and one-third from new construction; no single customer exceeded 1% of net sales.