Ferguson has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a roughly 24% outperformance two quarters ago — and offers roughly 8.7% upside to its analyst-derived take-profit target at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67-to-1; however, quality metrics are below average with no identifiable competitive moat, roughly 95% of revenue is concentrated in a single geography, and the stock has recently dipped below its 200-day moving average in what technicals characterize as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit No Competitive Moat→Stable
- Us Geographic Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $227.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $227.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 10.1% After Joining The S&P 500 Index - What's Changed - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 10.1% After Joining The S&P 500 Index - What's Changed - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS GREEN CENTURY BALANCED FUND's Ferguson Enterprises Inc(FERG) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises Inc.(NYSE: FERG) added to S&P 500 Growth - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Why Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 9.5% After S&P 500 Debut And Dividend Declaration - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $227.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $215.30. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $259.29 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $215.30. Stop-loss: $215.30.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $288.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada,...
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split roughly two-thirds from repair/maintenance/improvement and one-third from new construction; no single customer exceeded 1% of net sales.