Ferguson has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a roughly 24% outperformance two quarters ago — and offers roughly 8.7% upside to its analyst-derived take-profit target at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67-to-1; however, quality metrics are below average with no identifiable competitive moat, roughly 95% of revenue is concentrated in a single geography, and the stock has recently dipped below its 200-day moving average in what technicals characterize as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit No Competitive Moat→Stable
- Us Geographic Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $230.67: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%).
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $230.67: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Deal Dispatch: Uber Buys Delivery Hero For $14.8 Billion, Eli Lilly Acquires AtaiBeckley, Lulu’s Fashion Considers Strat — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Zelman & Assoc Upgrades Ferguson Enterprises to Outperform, Announces $285 Price Target — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises To Acquire Distributor And Servicer Of Valves And Flow Control Solutions FloWorks From Wynnchurch C — benzinga Jul 13, 2026 positive
- NEWS This Truist Financial Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Tuesday — benzinga Jul 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs Downgrades Ferguson Enterprises to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $265 — benzinga Jul 7, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-26T09:23:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $230.67: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $219.07. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $251.48 (+9.0% upside). Prior stop was $219.07. Stop-loss: $219.07.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.5 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $279.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada,...
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split roughly two-thirds from repair/maintenance/improvement and one-third from new construction; no single customer exceeded 1% of net sales.