Ferguson has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a roughly 24% outperformance two quarters ago — and offers roughly 8.7% upside to its analyst-derived take-profit target at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67-to-1; however, quality metrics are below average with no identifiable competitive moat, roughly 95% of revenue is concentrated in a single geography, and the stock has recently dipped below its 200-day moving average in what technicals characterize as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit No Competitive Moat→Stable
- Us Geographic Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%).
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ferguson Intends To Cancel Secondary Listing On London Stock Exchange, Effective July 20 — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ferguson Enterprises, Raises Price Target to $297 — benzinga May 8, 2026 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Ferguson Enterprises, Raises Price Target to $281 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ferguson Enterprises, Raises Price Target to $285 — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Weak US Housing Demand Hits Ferguson's Revenue Growth — benzinga May 5, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $230.24 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $216.18. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $256.11 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $216.18. Stop-loss: $216.18.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Negative momentum.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $285.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada,...
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split roughly two-thirds from repair/maintenance/improvement and one-third from new construction; no single customer exceeded 1% of net sales.