Ferguson has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a roughly 24% outperformance two quarters ago — and offers roughly 8.7% upside to its analyst-derived take-profit target at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67-to-1; however, quality metrics are below average with no identifiable competitive moat, roughly 95% of revenue is concentrated in a single geography, and the stock has recently dipped below its 200-day moving average in what technicals characterize as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit No Competitive Moat↓Deteriorating
- Us Geographic Revenue Concentration↑Improving
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. At $244.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%).
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split... Read more
Sell if holding. At $244.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 10.1% After Joining The S&P 500 Index - What's Changed - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 10.1% After Joining The S&P 500 Index - What's Changed - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS GREEN CENTURY BALANCED FUND's Ferguson Enterprises Inc(FERG) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises Inc.(NYSE: FERG) added to S&P 500 Growth - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Why Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 9.5% After S&P 500 Debut And Dividend Declaration - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-08-15T13:12:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $244.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $227.79. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $257.54 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $227.79. Stop-loss: $227.79.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $286.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada,...
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split roughly two-thirds from repair/maintenance/improvement and one-third from new construction; no single customer exceeded 1% of net sales.