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EXPOExponent, Inc.Sell5.3·$60.98+1.74%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Exponent operates a high-quality engineering and consulting franchise with best-in-class margins of 20%, a perfect Piotroski financial health score, and a wide economic moat — yet the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend and recently missed earnings estimates, creating tension between the quality of the business and near-term execution momentum. The risk/reward geometry of roughly 21% upside against 7% downside offers an asymmetric setup for investors who can absorb the trend headwind.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Quality FranchiseStable
  • Favorable Asymmetric Risk RewardStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. At $60.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Our interdisciplinary team of scientists, physicians, engineers, and business consultants draws from more than 90 technical disciplines to solve the most pressing and complicated challenges facing stakeholders today. The firm leverages over 55 years of experience in analyzing... Read more

$60.98+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#18 of 32 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.50%
IncomeYield2.00%(5y avg 1.18%)Payout56.54%sustainable
Stop $56.84Target $69.42(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$81.67+33.9%3 analysts
$69.42our TP
$60.98price
$81.67mean
$90

Sell if holding. At $60.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.5
P/E (Fwd)22.1
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA23.0
Profit Mgn19.8%
ROE27.9%
Rev Growth10.5%
Beta0.72
Dividend2.00%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.46bullish
IV54%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.** Appointment of John D. Pye, Ph.D. On April 6, 2026, Exponent, Inc.'s (the "Company") board of directors (the "Board") appointed Dr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
3.8
Quality Rank
8.3
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $54.07Resistance $61.44

Price Targets

$57
$69
A.Upside+13.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $60.98, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 69. Prior stop was $56.84. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EXPO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.42 (+13.8% upside). Prior stop was $56.84. Stop-loss: $56.84.

What are the risks of investing in EXPO?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is EXPO overvalued or undervalued?

Exponent, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.5 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EXPO?

10 analysts cover EXPO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $82.

What does Exponent, Inc. do?Our interdisciplinary team of scientists, physicians, engineers, and business consultants draws from more than 90...

Our interdisciplinary team of scientists, physicians, engineers, and business consultants draws from more than 90 technical disciplines to solve the most pressing and complicated challenges facing stakeholders today. The firm leverages over 55 years of experience in analyzing accidents and failures to advise clients as they innovate their technologically complex products and processes, ensure the safety and health of their users, and address the challenges o

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