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EGOEldorado Gold CorporationSell5.0·$39.73+3.36%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Eldorado shows a high-quality franchise with broad competitive advantages, exceptional reported growth, and near-perfect financial-health scores, but free cash flow is negative despite strong reported earnings and commodity-cycle timing risk leaves forward estimates vulnerable to mean-reversion.

Thesis pillars

  • Commodity Cycle Peak Estimates RiskDeteriorating
  • Wide Moat High Quality FranchiseStable
  • Exceptional Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc. The company holds a 100% interest in... Read more

$39.73-11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#34 of 40 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-4.52%
IncomeYield0.76%(5y avg 0.85%)Payout5.23%sustainable
Stop $36.95Target $45.69(default +15%)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$40.60+2.2%5 analysts
$45.69our TP
$39.73price
$40.60mean
$32
$54

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.52x. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.8
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn29.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth7.9%
Beta1.40
Dividend0.76%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV72%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
4.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
4.5
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.52xMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.37Resistance $40.41

Price Targets

$37
$46
A.Upside-11.1%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=7.2x,ratio=0.52x

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EGO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $36.95. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EGO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.69 (-11.1% upside). Prior stop was $36.95. Stop-loss: $36.95.

What are the risks of investing in EGO?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 7.2× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.52× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is EGO overvalued or undervalued?

Eldorado Gold Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.8 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EGO?

14 analysts cover EGO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Eldorado Gold Corporation do?Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of...

Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc. The company holds a 100% interest in the Kisladag and Efemçukuru mines located in Turkey; Lamaque complex located in Quebec, Canada; Olympias located in northern Greece; and Stratoni, Skouries, Perama Hill, and Sapes gold mines located in Greece. The company was formerly known as Eldorado Corporation Ltd. and changed its name to Eldorado Gold Corporation in April 1996. Eldorado Gold Corporation was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation)
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