The integrated oil and gas company screens cheaply on a forward earnings basis but is hobbled by a quality profile that falls below the minimum acceptable threshold, a revenue base in contraction, and an earnings track record where three of the last four quarters missed by wide margins — making the setup unattractive despite the apparent value.
Thesis pillars
- Dividend Yield Sustainability Risk↑Improving
- Below Threshold Business Quality↑Improving
- Chronic Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away).
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Ecopetrol S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Ecopetrol, Raises Price Target to $16 — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ecopetrol Completes Tender Offer Auction For 25% Of Brava Energia At R$23.00 Per Share; On Track To Acquire ~51% Control — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Ecopetrol Resumes Brazil Tender Offer To Acquire 116,110,717 Common Shares, Approximately 25% Of Brava — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Friday, Ecopetrol Discloses Data Breach Affecting Approximately 15 Subsidiaries And 3,300 User Accounts After U — benzinga Jul 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Ecopetrol Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T09:37:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $19.75 (+15.3%), stop $15.97 (−7.3%), A.R:R -3.1:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $19.75 (-31.7% upside). Target $19.75 (+15.3%), stop $15.97 (−7.3%), A.R:R -3.1:1. Stop-loss: $15.97.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Ecopetrol S.A. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover EC with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $13.
What does Ecopetrol S.A. do?Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production;...
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.