The integrated oil and gas company screens cheaply on a forward earnings basis but is hobbled by a quality profile that falls below the minimum acceptable threshold, a revenue base in contraction, and an earnings track record where three of the last four quarters missed by wide margins — making the setup unattractive despite the apparent value.
Thesis pillars
- Dividend Yield Sustainability Risk↑Improving
- Below Threshold Business Quality→Stable
- Chronic Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.01: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.01: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news legal. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Ecopetrol S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Ecopetrol Resumes Brazil Tender Offer To Acquire 116,110,717 Common Shares, Approximately 25% Of Brava — benzinga Jul 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS Reported Friday, Ecopetrol Discloses Data Breach Affecting Approximately 15 Subsidiaries And 3,300 User Accounts After U — benzinga Jul 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Ecopetrol Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Jul 2, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ecopetrol Reaches Final Agreement On New Six-Year Collective Bargaining Agreement With Oil Workers Union — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Downgrades Ecopetrol to Neutral, Raises Price Target to $18 — benzinga Jun 3, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -8.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.01: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.99. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.73 (-27.4% upside). Prior stop was $14.99. Stop-loss: $14.99.
Target reached (-27.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
Ecopetrol S.A. trades at a P/E of 11.0 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover EC with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $13.
What does Ecopetrol S.A. do?Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production;...
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.