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DVNDevon Energy CorporationHold7.1·$48.59-0.90%
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Devon Energy offers an attractive valuation at 8.0x forward earnings with more than 26% upside to analyst targets and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 5.8-to-1, but recurring earnings misses and declining revenue limit near-term conviction; the technical setup is constructive but the fundamental execution record argues for patience.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Large Analyst UpsideStable
  • Recurring Earnings Misses Signal Execution RiskImproving
  • Declining Revenue Weak Growth ProfileStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 10.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford... Read more

$48.59+10.0% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#8 of 49 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.46%
IncomeYield2.61%(5y avg 5.05%)Payout22.61%sustainable
Stop $46.41Target $53.65(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$59.62+22.7%26 analysts
$53.65our TP
$48.59price
$59.62mean
$44
$68

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 10.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+0.83)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Risks
Thin upside margin: 10.0%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$53.7B
EV/EBITDA7.2
Profit Mgn17.5%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth64.2%
Beta0.42
Dividend2.61%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C4.21bearish
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$53+9.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Devon Energy completed acquisition of Coterra Energy Inc. on May 7, 2026, following stockholder approval by both companies on May 4, 2026. Each Coterra share converted to 0.70 Devon shares; Coterra now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.41Resistance $49.72

Price Targets

$46
$54
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DVN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.59, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 10.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $53.65 (+10.4%), stop $46.41 (−4.7%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.

What is the DVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.65 (+10.0% upside). Target $53.65 (+10.4%), stop $46.41 (−4.7%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $46.41.

What are the risks of investing in DVN?

Thin upside margin: 10.0%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DVN overvalued or undervalued?

Devon Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DVN?

33 analysts cover DVN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $60.

What does Devon Energy Corporation do?Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of...

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford located in North America, Anadarko Basin located in western Oklahoma, Williston Basin located in North Dakota, and Powder River Basin located in Wyoming. Devon Energy Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Related stocks: MGY (Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation) · VIST (Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.) · SM (SM Energy Company) · CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) · PR (Permian Resources Corporation)
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