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DVADaVita Inc.Hold5.8·$208.81+0.07%
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DaVita Inc. (DVA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $208.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%).

DaVita provides kidney dialysis through 2,657 U.S. outpatient centers in 46 states and 585 international centers in 14 countries, serving approximately 200,500 U.S. and 94,500 international patients. U.S. dialysis represents approximately 86% of consolidated revenues; government... Read more

$208.81-0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#10 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.46%
Stop $197.67Target $207.56(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$193.71-7.2%7 analysts
$207.56our TP
$208.81price
$193.71mean
$145
$235

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $208.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.1
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$13.4B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn5.6%
ROE81.0%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta0.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$100-52.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMedicare and Medicare Advantage plans57%
    10-K Item 1: 'Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans| 57 | %'
  • HIGHCustomertotal government-based programs68%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total government-based programs| 68 | %'
  • MEDIUMCustomercommercial payors32%
    10-K Item 1: 'The payments we receive from commercial payors generate nearly all of our profits and all of our non-hospital dialysis profits come from commercial payors'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.2
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $186.61Resistance $211.80

Price Targets

$198
$208
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DVA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $208.81, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $207.56 (-0.6%), stop $197.67 (−5.6%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.56 (-0.6% upside). Target $207.56 (-0.6%), stop $197.67 (−5.6%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $197.67.

What are the risks of investing in DVA?

Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans (57.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: total government-based programs (68.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is DVA overvalued or undervalued?

DaVita Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DVA?

14 analysts cover DVA with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $194.

What does DaVita Inc. do?DaVita provides kidney dialysis through 2,657 U.S. outpatient centers in 46 states and 585 international centers in 14...

DaVita provides kidney dialysis through 2,657 U.S. outpatient centers in 46 states and 585 international centers in 14 countries, serving approximately 200,500 U.S. and 94,500 international patients. U.S. dialysis represents approximately 86% of consolidated revenues; government programs cover 68% of U.S. dialysis revenues, while commercial payors at 32% generate nearly all profits.

Related stocks: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
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