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DKLDelek Logistics Partners, L.P.Sell6.1·$54.01+3.27%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Delek Logistics trades at an attractive 9x forward earnings with best-in-class margins and a strong financial-health score, but free cash flow is negative — meaning distributions are funded by means other than operations — and the asymmetry gate has failed despite a modest upside to the resistance target; income investors face yield-trap risk that is not fully offset by the fundamental quality picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Yield Trap RiskStable
  • Best In Class Margin ProfileStable
  • Attractive Forward ValuationDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. (DKL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $54.01 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Delek Logistics Partners, LP provides gathering, pipeline, transportation, and other services for crude oil, intermediates, refined products, natural gas, storage, wholesale marketing, terminalling water disposal and recycling customers in the United States. The company operates... Read more

$54.01-14.6% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#12 of 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-3.86%
IncomeYield8.62%(5y avg 9.01%)Payout155.36%at-risk
Stop $50.23Target $59.13(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$53.00-1.9%6 analysts
$59.13our TP
$54.01price
$53.00mean
$36
$61

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $54.01 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 6, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.8
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn12.8%
ROE
Rev Growth56.2%
Beta0.42
Dividend8.62%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.33bearish
IV63%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerDelek Holdings
    10-K Item 1A: 'Delek Holdings is a primary customer for a many of our assets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joseph Israel departed as EVP, Refining and Renewables effective April 20, 2026. Amber Russell appointed EVP, Refining effective April 20, 2026; previously SVP at bp Solutions and SVP of Refining, Terminals, and Pipelines at bp.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-27Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior revolving credit facility and term loan under the Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Fifth Third Bank as administrative agent was terminated upon entering a new $1.3 billion revolving credit agreement with Truist Bank on March 26, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Dividend Safety
2.0
Surprise Avg
2.4
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $50.60Resistance $60.34

Price Targets

$50
$59
A.Upside-14.6%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-06 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DKL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $54.01 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $50.23. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DKL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.13 (-14.6% upside). Prior stop was $50.23. Stop-loss: $50.23.

What are the risks of investing in DKL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DKL overvalued or undervalued?

Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of 20.8 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DKL?

13 analysts cover DKL with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. do?Delek Logistics Partners, LP provides gathering, pipeline, transportation, and other services for crude oil,...

Delek Logistics Partners, LP provides gathering, pipeline, transportation, and other services for crude oil, intermediates, refined products, natural gas, storage, wholesale marketing, terminalling water disposal and recycling customers in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Gathering and Processing, Wholesale Marketing and Terminalling, Storage and Transportation, and Investments in Joint Ventures. It offers tanks, offloading facilities, and trucks and ancillary assets that provide crude oil, hydrocarbon-based products, intermediate and refined products transportation, and storage services. Delek Logistics GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. Delek Logistics Partners, LP was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee. Delek Logistics Partners, LP operates as a subsidiary of Delek US Holdings, Inc.

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