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DKLDelek Logistics Partners, L.P.Sell6.3·$55.27-0.34%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Delek Logistics trades at an attractive 9x forward earnings with best-in-class margins and a strong financial-health score, but free cash flow is negative — meaning distributions are funded by means other than operations — and the asymmetry gate has failed despite a modest upside to the resistance target; income investors face yield-trap risk that is not fully offset by the fundamental quality picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Yield Trap RiskImproving
  • Best In Class Margin ProfileStable
  • Attractive Forward ValuationStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. (DKL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.27 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Delek Logistics Partners, LP provides gathering, pipeline, transportation, and other services for crude oil, intermediates, refined products, natural gas, storage, wholesale marketing, terminalling water disposal and recycling customers in the United States. The company operates... Read more

$55.27-16.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#7 of 17 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-3.36%
Stop $53.33Target $58.80(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$52.83-4.4%6 analysts
$58.80our TP
$55.27price
$52.83mean
$36
$61

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.27 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 6, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.1
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn12.8%
ROE
Rev Growth56.2%
Beta0.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.88bearish
IV30%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerDelek Holdings
    10-K Item 1A: 'Delek Holdings is a primary customer for a many of our assets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joseph Israel departed as EVP, Refining and Renewables effective April 20, 2026. Amber Russell appointed EVP, Refining effective April 20, 2026; previously SVP at bp Solutions and SVP of Refining, Terminals, and Pipelines at bp.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-27Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior revolving credit facility and term loan under the Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Fifth Third Bank as administrative agent was terminated upon entering a new $1.3 billion revolving credit agreement with Truist Bank on March 26, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
2.4
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesA.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $50.60Resistance $60.00

Price Targets

$53
$59
A.Upside-16.8%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.8% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-06 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DKL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $55.27 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $53.33. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DKL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.80 (-16.8% upside). Prior stop was $53.33. Stop-loss: $53.33.

What are the risks of investing in DKL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is DKL overvalued or undervalued?

Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of 19.1 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DKL?

13 analysts cover DKL with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Delek Logistics Partners, L.P. do?Delek Logistics Partners, LP provides gathering, pipeline, transportation, and other services for crude oil,...

Delek Logistics Partners, LP provides gathering, pipeline, transportation, and other services for crude oil, intermediates, refined products, natural gas, storage, wholesale marketing, terminalling water disposal and recycling customers in the United States. The company operates in four segments: Gathering and Processing, Wholesale Marketing and Terminalling, Storage and Transportation, and Investments in Joint Ventures. It offers tanks, offloading facilities, and trucks and ancillary assets that provide crude oil, hydrocarbon-based products, intermediate and refined products transportation, and storage services. Delek Logistics GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. Delek Logistics Partners, LP was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee. Delek Logistics Partners, LP operates as a subsidiary of Delek US Holdings, Inc.

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