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DGICADonegal Group, Inc.Sell4.7·$19.64+2.08%
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Donegal Group, Inc. (DGICA) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.64: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Donegal Group Inc., an insurance holding company, provides commercial and personal lines of property and casualty coverages. It operates through three segments: Investment Function, Commercial Lines of Insurance, and Personal Lines of Insurance. The company offers protection... Read more

$19.64-0.7% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#33 of 40 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield6.60%
IncomeYield4.00%(5y avg 4.36%)Payout41.01%sustainable
Stop $18.35Target $19.16(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$19.25-2.0%2 analysts
$19.16our TP
$19.64price
$19.25mean
$18
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.64: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-15.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$715M
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE10.6%
Rev Growth-3.7%
Beta-0.03
Dividend4.00%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV105%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.6
Earnings Growth
3.1
Declining revenue: -4%

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
1.4
Current Ratio
2.0
Operating Margin
2.5
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
3.3
Net Margin
3.4
Roe
3.5
Fcf Quality
5.5
Earnings quality warning: 72% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
8.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.2
Value Rank
7.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.8
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $16.64Resistance $19.55

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside-2.4%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DGICA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.64: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $18.35. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DGICA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.16 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $18.35. Stop-loss: $18.35.

What are the risks of investing in DGICA?

Target reached (-15.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is DGICA overvalued or undervalued?

Donegal Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DGICA?

11 analysts cover DGICA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Donegal Group, Inc. do?Donegal Group Inc., an insurance holding company, provides commercial and personal lines of property and casualty...

Donegal Group Inc., an insurance holding company, provides commercial and personal lines of property and casualty coverages. It operates through three segments: Investment Function, Commercial Lines of Insurance, and Personal Lines of Insurance. The company offers protection against liability for bodily injury and property damage arising from automobile accidents and protection against loss from damage to automobiles owned by the insured for commercial automobile; protection to businesses against perils combining liability and physical damage coverages; and benefits to employees for injuries sustained during employment. It provides protection against liability for bodily injury and property damage arising from automobile accidents and protection against loss from damage to automobiles owned by the insured for private passenger automobile; and coverage for damage to residences and their contents from a range of perils, including fire, lightning, windstorm, and theft. The company markets its insurance products primarily to Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Southern, and Southwestern states through a network of independent insurance agents. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Marietta, Pennsylvania. Donegal Group Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Donegal Mutual Insurance Company.

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