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White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $2210.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: BAM; Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak).

White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company with businesses in specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance (Ark), municipal bond guarantee reinsurance (HG Global), capital solutions for asset managers (Kudu), and specialty insurance distribution (Distinguished). Revenue... Read more

$2210.09+3.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#12 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $2124.79Target $2286.34(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $2210.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: BAM; Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Margin of safety: 66%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: BAM
Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak)
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.1
P/E (Fwd)24.5
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA3.1
Profit Mgn29.6%
ROE21.1%
Rev Growth348.0%
Beta0.35
Dividend0.05%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerBAM
    10-K Item 1A: 'HG Re is only licensed to provide reinsurance to BAM.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerthree largest carriers61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Distinguished placed approximately 61% of its business with its three largest carriers during the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • LOWCustomersingle largest carrier22%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Distinguished placed approximately 22% of its business with its single largest carrier during the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $2067.21Resistance $2333.00

Price Targets

$2125
$2286
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 25x vs trail 5x (4.8x)
! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $2210.09 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: BAM; Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $2124.79. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2286.34 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $2124.79. Stop-loss: $2124.79.

What are the risks of investing in WTM?

Concentration risk — Customer: BAM; Earnings expected to decline ~79% (cyclical peak); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is WTM overvalued or undervalued?

White Mountains Insurance Group trades at a P/E of 5.1 (forward 24.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WTM?

8 analysts cover WTM with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does White Mountains Insurance Group do?White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company with businesses in specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance...

White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company with businesses in specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance (Ark), municipal bond guarantee reinsurance (HG Global), capital solutions for asset managers (Kudu), and specialty insurance distribution (Distinguished). Revenue comes from underwriting income, investment returns, and fee-based services.

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