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White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2144.81: Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company making opportunistic acquisitions in insurance and financial services, operating through Ark (specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance via Lloyd's and Bermuda, $2.6B GWP), HG Global (municipal bond guarantee reinsurance for... Read more

$2144.81+5.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#25 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.64%
IncomeYield0.05%(5y avg 0.07%)Payout0.25%sustainable
Stop $2023.43Target $2257.40(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2144.81: Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — White Mountains Insurance Group

Generated 2026-05-20T21:13:16Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Margin of safety: 65%
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.3
P/E (Fwd)23.8
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn37.0%
ROE19.7%
Rev Growth-10.8%
Beta0.32
Dividend0.05%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -11%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 5.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Value Rank
5.7
Quality Rank
7.6
Attractive P/E vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $2050.01Resistance $2303.47

Price Targets

$2023
$2257
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 24x vs trail 5x (4.5x)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2144.81: Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $2023.43. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2257.40 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $2023.43. Stop-loss: $2023.43.

What are the risks of investing in WTM?

Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is WTM overvalued or undervalued?

White Mountains Insurance Group trades at a P/E of 5.3 (forward 23.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WTM?

8 analysts cover WTM with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does White Mountains Insurance Group do?White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company making opportunistic acquisitions in insurance and...

White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company making opportunistic acquisitions in insurance and financial services, operating through Ark (specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance via Lloyd's and Bermuda, $2.6B GWP), HG Global (municipal bond guarantee reinsurance for BAM), Kudu (capital solutions for asset managers), and Distinguished (specialty insurance distribution MGA). The company's philosophy is to acquire, operate, and exit at attractive valuations.

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