White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2032.37: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak).
White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company making opportunistic acquisitions in insurance and financial services, operating through Ark (specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance via Lloyd's and Bermuda, $2.6B GWP), HG Global (municipal bond guarantee reinsurance for... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2032.37: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About White Mountains Insurance Group
About White Mountains Insurance Group
Ark, White Mountains Insurance Group's largest segment, wrote $2,557.2 million in gross written premiums in 2025 across property, specialty, marine & energy, casualty, and accident & health lines, generated through Lloyd's syndicates in the United Kingdom ($1,404.7 million) and a Class 4 Bermuda platform ($1,152.5 million). Three additional segments—HG Global in municipal bond guarantee reinsurance, Kudu in capital solutions for asset managers, and Distinguished in specialty insurance distribution—complete the holding company's portfolio.
White Mountains generates underwriting revenue through Ark's specialty property and casualty book, where property lines produced $1,178.0 million and specialty lines $646.7 million in 2025 gross written premiums. Ark distributes primarily through insurance and reinsurance brokers and intermediaries, with Marsh & McLennan Companies producing 24.3%, Arthur J. Gallagher 15.2%, and Aon 12.4% of gross written premiums in 2025—the top five intermediaries collectively generating 64.7% of Ark's volume. Distinguished earns commissions as a managing general agent, placing approximately 61% of its premium volume with three carriers in 2025. Kudu holds participation contracts with asset and wealth managers, whose revenue depends on asset-based and performance fees tied to market conditions. HG Global's subsidiary HG Re provides reinsurance to Build America Mutual (BAM), the municipal bond insurer whose Standard & Poor's "AA/stable" rating was affirmed in July 2025.
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HG Re is licensed solely to provide reinsurance to BAM, creating a single-counterparty dependency: if BAM's S&P rating falls below "AA," BAM could be prevented from writing new policies, eliminating HG Re's entire business. White Mountains holds BAM Surplus Notes with a principal balance of $277 million and accrued interest of $214 million at nominal value, carried at fair value of $339 million as of December 31, 2025, with NYDFS approval required for any principal or interest payments—an approval that cannot be guaranteed.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From White Mountains Insurance Group's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — White Mountains Insurance Group
Latest news
- NEWS White Mountains Insurance Swings to Loss in Q1, Revenue Declines - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (WTM) White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Reports Q1 Revenue $517.8M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS White Mountains: Q1 Earnings Snapshot - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS White Mountains: Q1 Earnings Snapshot - KING5.com — KING5.com neutral
- NEWS Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich Cantonalbank Raises Stock Position in White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. $WTM - MarketBea — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
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Quality Signals
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -10.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $2032.37: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $1940.79. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $2131.50 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $1940.79. Stop-loss: $1940.79.
Earnings expected to decline ~78% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak overall score: 4.6/10.
White Mountains Insurance Group trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover WTM with a consensus score of 2.3/5.
What does White Mountains Insurance Group do?White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company making opportunistic acquisitions in insurance and...
White Mountains Insurance Group is a Bermuda holding company making opportunistic acquisitions in insurance and financial services, operating through Ark (specialty P&C insurance/reinsurance via Lloyd's and Bermuda, $2.6B GWP), HG Global (municipal bond guarantee reinsurance for BAM), Kudu (capital solutions for asset managers), and Distinguished (specialty insurance distribution MGA). The company's philosophy is to acquire, operate, and exit at attractive valuations.