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CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.Sell5.0·$43.94-1.99%
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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.94: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment primarily provides truckload... Read more

$43.94+5.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#6 of 12 Trucking
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-1.71%
IncomeYield0.64%Payout311.11%at-risk
Stop $40.86Target $46.14(resistance)A.R:R -4.2:1
Analyst target$35.00-20.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.94: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-32.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)488.2
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth14.0%
Beta1.30
Dividend0.64%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.00bullish
IV63%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
0.2
Gross Margin
0.2
Net Margin
0.2
Roa
0.9
Operating Margin
0.9
Current Ratio
4.1
Moat
5.6
Piotroski F
7.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -371% FCF/NIStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
3.3
Growth Rank
9.2
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -4.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.20%=MODERATEMomentum 5.0>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.00Resistance $47.08

Price Targets

$41
$46
A.Upside+5.0%
A.R:R-4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-32.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVLG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $43.94: Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $40.86. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CVLG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.14 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $40.86. Stop-loss: $40.86.

What are the risks of investing in CVLG?

Target reached (-32.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0).

Is CVLG overvalued or undervalued?

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 488.2 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CVLG?

8 analysts cover CVLG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. do?Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the...

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment primarily provides truckload services with high service freight and delivery standards, such as 1,000 miles in 22 hours or 15-minute delivery windows. The Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods with the goal of three to five years in length using equipment either owned or leased by the company. The Managed Freight segment offers brokerage services, including logistics capacity by outsourcing the carriage of customers' freight to third parties; and transport management services, such as logistics services on a contractual basis to customers who prefer to outsource their logistics needs. The Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers, as well as shuttle and switching services related to shuttling containers and trailers. The company also engages in used equipment sales and leasing business. It serves transportation companies, such as parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, and third-party logistics providers; and traditional truckload customers, including manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers. The company was formerly known as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. and changed its name to Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. in May 2007. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

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