Skip to main content
CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.Sell5.2·$591.86-0.15%
Open full analysis

Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. At $591.86, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%).

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in Texas) and an independent dealer network across 48 states and Canada, operating 33 homebuilding production lines (31 U.S., 2 in Mexico). Revenue comes from... Read more

$591.86+1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#1 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.05%
Stop $550.43Target $598.68(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$625.00+5.6%3 analysts
$598.68our TP
$591.86price
$625.00mean
$575
$700

Sell if holding. At $591.86, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores
Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA17.3
Profit Mgn8.5%
ROE17.6%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta1.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.49bullish
IV62%elevated
Max Pain$560-5.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTexas retail stores
    10-K Item 1A: 'of the 92 Company-owned retail stores, 57 are located in Texas'
  • HIGHCustomerindependent distributors77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 77% of our sales of factory-built homes were to independent distributors'
  • HIGHcounterpartysingle assumed reinsurance entity
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our assumed reinsurance is with one entity'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioTexas, Florida, Oklahoma, New Mexico loan collateral
    10-K Item 1: 'Our loan contracts are secured by factory-built homes located in 27 states, with the largest concentrations in Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, and New Mexico'
  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada insurance markets
    10-K Item 1A: 'Standard Casualty ... primarily serving the Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada markets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.1
Bollinger
1.7
Gap
5.0
52w Position
6.6
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $443.33Resistance $610.90

Price Targets

$550
$599
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CVCO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $591.86, A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $550.43. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the CVCO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $598.68 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $550.43. Stop-loss: $550.43.

What are the risks of investing in CVCO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Texas retail stores; Concentration risk — Customer: independent distributors (77.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CVCO overvalued or undervalued?

Cavco Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CVCO?

8 analysts cover CVCO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $625.

What does Cavco Industries, Inc. do?Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in...

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through 92 Company-owned retail stores (57 in Texas) and an independent dealer network across 48 states and Canada, operating 33 homebuilding production lines (31 U.S., 2 in Mexico). Revenue comes from manufactured and modular home sales supplemented by consumer finance (CountryPlace) and property/casualty insurance (Standard Casualty) subsidiaries.

Related stocks: IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) · TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.)
Home Stocks CVCO

Latest news

Latest News

Yahoo Finance26d agoProduct
Meyka27d agoEarnings
Quiver Quantitative25d agoEarnings
Stock Titan25d ago
GuruFocus26d ago
Stock Titan26d ago
GuruFocus32d ago
Quiver Quantitative32d agoEarnings
AD HOC NEWS29d agoEarnings
Seeking Alpha35d ago
MarketBeat36d ago
Benzinga10d ago
Benzinga25d agoEarnings
Benzinga26d agoEarnings
Benzinga26d agoProduct