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CTVACorteva, Inc.Sell5.1·$76.87+1.42%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A three-quarter earnings beat streak and exceptional free-cash-flow quality underpin the fundamental case, but 7% upside to the analyst target and momentum sitting just below the required threshold leave this name in a hold posture rather than a compelling add.

Thesis pillars

  • Technical Pullback In UptrendDeteriorating
  • Constrained Upside To TargetStable
  • Earnings Beat DisciplineStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) Stock Analysis

SellShortModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs

Sell if holding. At $76.87, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Weak growth.

Corteva is a leading global provider of seed and crop protection solutions focused on the agriculture industry and contributing to a healthier, more secure and sustainable food supply. Corteva was incorporated in Delaware in March 2018 and maintains its business headquarters in... Read more

$76.87+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#6 of 9 Agricultural Inputs
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.78%
IncomeYield0.95%(5y avg 1.06%)Payout43.64%sustainable
Stop $72.27Target $83.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$92.40+20.2%20 analysts
$83.16our TP
$76.87price
$92.40mean
$103

Sell if holding. At $76.87, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05,2.06. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.9
P/E (Fwd)18.4
Mkt Cap$50.6B
EV/EBITDA12.5
Profit Mgn5.7%
ROE4.3%
Rev Growth-1.2%
Beta0.57
Dividend0.95%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV48%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On June 26, 2026, each of Karen Grimes, Marcos Lutz, Charles Magro, and Kerry Preete have mutually agreed with the board of directors (the "Board") of Corteva Inc.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-12Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities Corteva, Inc. (the "Company") has been executing a multi-year footprint optimization and productivity initiative designed to enhance efficiency and reduce structural costs across its global operations (the "Crop Protection Operations Strategy Rest...
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-06-12Item 2.06MEDIUM
    UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K/A Amendment No. 1 CURRENT REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date of Report (Date of Earliest Event Reported): November 8, 2023 Corteva, Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.2
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 28)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
4.1
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spot8K SERIOUS 2.05,2.06Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $74.51Resistance $90.97

Price Targets

$72
$83
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! 8K_SERIOUS:2.05,2.06

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $76.87, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $72.27. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.16 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $72.27. Stop-loss: $72.27.

What are the risks of investing in CTVA?

Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is CTVA overvalued or undervalued?

Corteva, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.9 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTVA?

29 analysts cover CTVA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $92.

What does Corteva, Inc. do?Corteva is a leading global provider of seed and crop protection solutions focused on the agriculture industry and...

Corteva is a leading global provider of seed and crop protection solutions focused on the agriculture industry and contributing to a healthier, more secure and sustainable food supply. Corteva was incorporated in Delaware in March 2018 and maintains its business headquarters in Indianapolis, Indiana.

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