Value
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.44
CTVA · Why this verdict
Why Corteva (CTVA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With RSI at 34 — near oversold territory — and the stock still trading above its 200-day moving average, price action reflects a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, which has historically offered a more attractive entry for patient investors. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 and price advances toward the $81 analyst target within two quarters without closing below the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterThe momentum assessment characterizes the setup as a pullback in an uptrend without confirming the trend has resumed; if momentum continues to soften, what appears as a buying opportunity may deepen into a more sustained decline. | ||
At 7% below the analyst target and with the risk/reward ratio just at the floor of the required level, there is limited margin for error — the setup favors patience over adding new exposure at the current price. Bear case | If the fundamental thesis holds, analyst consensus targets rise to at least $87 within 12 months, expanding upside to roughly 15% and restoring a more comfortable risk/reward geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterA 7% return is a material move rather than a negligible one, and any positive earnings catalyst could close the gap quickly — making the upside constraint more of a timing consideration than a structural limitation. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 23%, most recently exceeding the estimate by 27%. This pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering suggests guidance discipline that supports earnings durability. Earnings | Average quarterly EPS surprise remains positive and above 10% over the next four quarters with no misses. | →Stable |
| CounterThe four-quarter sequence includes one inline quarter among three beats; if upward estimate revisions following each beat have already closed the gap to true earnings power, the surprise rate may compress toward zero even without any operational deterioration. | ||
Free cash flow runs at 222% of net income, and the financial health score is 8 out of 9, indicating that reported earnings are being converted into real cash well above the rate that net income alone would suggest. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and the financial health score remains at 7 or higher for the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio far above 100% can reflect temporary working-capital benefits or deferred reinvestment; if the driver is one-time in nature, conversion may revert toward 100% without signaling any operating deterioration. | ||
With RSI at 34 — near oversold territory — and the stock still trading above its 200-day moving average, price action reflects a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, which has historically offered a more attractive entry for patient investors.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 and price advances toward the $81 analyst target within two quarters without closing below the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe momentum assessment characterizes the setup as a pullback in an uptrend without confirming the trend has resumed; if momentum continues to soften, what appears as a buying opportunity may deepen into a more sustained decline.
At 7% below the analyst target and with the risk/reward ratio just at the floor of the required level, there is limited margin for error — the setup favors patience over adding new exposure at the current price.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If the fundamental thesis holds, analyst consensus targets rise to at least $87 within 12 months, expanding upside to roughly 15% and restoring a more comfortable risk/reward geometry.
CounterA 7% return is a material move rather than a negligible one, and any positive earnings catalyst could close the gap quickly — making the upside constraint more of a timing consideration than a structural limitation.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 23%, most recently exceeding the estimate by 27%. This pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering suggests guidance discipline that supports earnings durability.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average quarterly EPS surprise remains positive and above 10% over the next four quarters with no misses.
CounterThe four-quarter sequence includes one inline quarter among three beats; if upward estimate revisions following each beat have already closed the gap to true earnings power, the surprise rate may compress toward zero even without any operational deterioration.
Free cash flow runs at 222% of net income, and the financial health score is 8 out of 9, indicating that reported earnings are being converted into real cash well above the rate that net income alone would suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and the financial health score remains at 7 or higher for the next four quarters.
CounterA free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio far above 100% can reflect temporary working-capital benefits or deferred reinvestment; if the driver is one-time in nature, conversion may revert toward 100% without signaling any operating deterioration.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A three-quarter earnings beat streak and exceptional free-cash-flow quality underpin the fundamental case, but 7% upside to the analyst target and momentum sitting just below the required threshold leave this name in a hold posture rather than a compelling add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 9.5 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 222% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.4 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 89)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 84.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05,2.06
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.41
Upside
-5.4%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.6, and Growth at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Discipline
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree-cash-flow conversion drops below 120% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Technical Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P4Constrained Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $87, expanding available upside beyond 15% from the current price of $75.71.