Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.23
CTVA · Why this verdict
Why Corteva (CTVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A three-quarter earnings beat streak and exceptional free-cash-flow quality underpin the fundamental case, but 7% upside to the analyst target and momentum sitting just below the required threshold leave this name in a hold posture rather than a compelling add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With RSI at 34 — near oversold territory — and the stock still trading above its 200-day moving average, price action reflects a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, which has historically offered a more attractive entry for patient investors. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 50 and price advances toward the $81 analyst target within two quarters without closing below the 200-day moving average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe momentum assessment characterizes the setup as a pullback in an uptrend without confirming the trend has resumed; if momentum continues to soften, what appears as a buying opportunity may deepen into a more sustained decline. | ||
At 7% below the analyst target and with the risk/reward ratio just at the floor of the required level, there is limited margin for error — the setup favors patience over adding new exposure at the current price. Bear case | If the fundamental thesis holds, analyst consensus targets rise to at least $87 within 12 months, expanding upside to roughly 15% and restoring a more comfortable risk/reward geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterA 7% return is a material move rather than a negligible one, and any positive earnings catalyst could close the gap quickly — making the upside constraint more of a timing consideration than a structural limitation. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 23%, most recently exceeding the estimate by 27%. This pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering suggests guidance discipline that supports earnings durability. Earnings | Average quarterly EPS surprise remains positive and above 10% over the next four quarters with no misses. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe four-quarter sequence includes one inline quarter among three beats; if upward estimate revisions following each beat have already closed the gap to true earnings power, the surprise rate may compress toward zero even without any operational deterioration. | ||
Free cash flow runs at 222% of net income, and the financial health score is 8 out of 9, indicating that reported earnings are being converted into real cash well above the rate that net income alone would suggest. Quality breakdown | Free-cash-flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and the financial health score remains at 7 or higher for the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio far above 100% can reflect temporary working-capital benefits or deferred reinvestment; if the driver is one-time in nature, conversion may revert toward 100% without signaling any operating deterioration. | ||
With RSI at 34 — near oversold territory — and the stock still trading above its 200-day moving average, price action reflects a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal, which has historically offered a more attractive entry for patient investors.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 50 and price advances toward the $81 analyst target within two quarters without closing below the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe momentum assessment characterizes the setup as a pullback in an uptrend without confirming the trend has resumed; if momentum continues to soften, what appears as a buying opportunity may deepen into a more sustained decline.
At 7% below the analyst target and with the risk/reward ratio just at the floor of the required level, there is limited margin for error — the setup favors patience over adding new exposure at the current price.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If the fundamental thesis holds, analyst consensus targets rise to at least $87 within 12 months, expanding upside to roughly 15% and restoring a more comfortable risk/reward geometry.
CounterA 7% return is a material move rather than a negligible one, and any positive earnings catalyst could close the gap quickly — making the upside constraint more of a timing consideration than a structural limitation.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 23%, most recently exceeding the estimate by 27%. This pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering suggests guidance discipline that supports earnings durability.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Average quarterly EPS surprise remains positive and above 10% over the next four quarters with no misses.
CounterThe four-quarter sequence includes one inline quarter among three beats; if upward estimate revisions following each beat have already closed the gap to true earnings power, the surprise rate may compress toward zero even without any operational deterioration.
Free cash flow runs at 222% of net income, and the financial health score is 8 out of 9, indicating that reported earnings are being converted into real cash well above the rate that net income alone would suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free-cash-flow conversion stays above 150% of net income and the financial health score remains at 7 or higher for the next four quarters.
CounterA free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio far above 100% can reflect temporary working-capital benefits or deferred reinvestment; if the driver is one-time in nature, conversion may revert toward 100% without signaling any operating deterioration.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.4 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 240% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 8.4 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05,2.06
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.44
Upside
+10.1%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05,2.06) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.44 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.1, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.1, Momentum at 2.0, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Discipline
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree-cash-flow conversion drops below 120% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Technical Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P4Constrained Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $87, expanding available upside beyond 15% from the current price of $75.71.