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CTRACoterra Energy Inc.Sell6.3·$32.49-8.81%
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Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. At $32.49, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.1%.

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's properties include the Permian Basin, which covers approximately 345,000 net acres in... Read more

$32.49+4.1% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#14 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.05%
IncomeYield0.03%(5y avg 4.57%)Payout40.55%sustainable
Stop $30.28Target $33.88(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$37.65+15.9%20 analysts
$33.88our TP
$32.49price
$37.65mean
$28
$46

Sell if holding. At $32.49, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.0
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$24.7B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn22.7%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.30
Dividend0.03%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV88%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'our Permian Basin properties where we have significant oil and natural gas production'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.01HIGH
    Coterra Energy Inc. became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon Energy Corporation on May 7, 2026 upon merger consummation; each eligible share converted to 0.70 shares of Devon common stock. No successor public entity; Coterra survives as private subsidiary.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-07Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Coterra terminated all lender commitments under its March 10, 2023 Credit Agreement (as amended) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent on May 7, 2026 in connection with merger closing. All outstanding amounts repaid.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Officer and director changes in connection with Devon merger consummation on May 7, 2026. No specific departures or successor appointments detailed in truncated filing body.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.9
Quality Rank
5.3
Growth Rank
5.7
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.34Resistance $36.31

Price Targets

$30
$34
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $32.49, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $30.28. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTRA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.88 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $30.28. Stop-loss: $30.28.

What are the risks of investing in CTRA?

Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is CTRA overvalued or undervalued?

Coterra Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTRA?

29 analysts cover CTRA with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Coterra Energy Inc. do?Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of...

Coterra Energy Inc., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company's properties include the Permian Basin, which covers approximately 345,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico, and an additional approximate of 49,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin in Lea County, New Mexico; Marcellus Shale properties, which covers approximately 186,000 net acres located in Susquehanna County, northeast Pennsylvania; and Anadarko Basin, which covers approximately 208,000 net acres located in the mid-continent region in Oklahoma. It also operates natural gas and saltwater gathering, and disposal systems in Texas. The company sells its natural gas to industrial customers, local distribution companies, oil and gas marketers, energy companies, pipeline companies, and power generation facilities. The company was formerly known as Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation and changed its name to Coterra Energy Inc. in October 2021. Coterra Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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